Russia is pushing for federalism in Ukraine

For a possible resolution of the matter Ukrainian negotiations taking place in Geneva have a unique situation with regard to Russia , Moscow , in fact , it is isolated on the international stage , but it holds a position of undeniable force than their counterparts . The West appears divided , with the U.S. pushing for sanctions, while in the EU , the most influential members are reluctant to grant it , because under the constant pressure of lobby interests , which , in some cases, appeared before the committee against penalties in Moscow. Russia, which officially is at the window waiting for developments , but in reality it is suspected to have sent members of the secret services to help the pro-Russian , is pushing for the federal solution , on which to build the structure of the Ukrainian state . It is a veritable invasion of the field in the sovereignty of a foreign state , but that fits with what are the demands of the pro-Russian eastern Ukrainian territories . Kiev has good reason to oppose this solution, which could represent the first step towards a separation of these future states to Russia. Moscow's strategy is therefore well defined and is the medium or long term, a feature that could enable him to avoid retaliation too heavy now, as happened in the Crimea. The primary objective is to allow the pro-Russian acquire a status of well-defined , on which then work to create the conditions for an eventual annexation to Russia. The failure of the anti-terrorism operation , as were defined from Kiev , against the pro-Russian rebels , who have occupied important power centers in Ukraine, Russia provides an additional benefit: to appear before the negotiations have virtually no influence on failure of Ukraine. For Moscow , moreover, remained equally prominent to keep open the channels of communication with the West , in order to avoid falling into the most complete diplomatic isolation . In addition, Moscow has also avoided to continue to request the participation of the representatives to the negotiations in Geneva autonomists . This fact is very significant because it shows that Moscow does not fear more insulation to the negotiating table and is fully conscious of its strength at the international level , despite remains alone in her battle. The position of Ukraine, forced by events, there has been much softened against the oriental populations , made ​​positive comments from the Kremlin, and has therefore focused primarily on the withdrawal request to the sheer number of Russian troops on its border . For as you are putting the talks in Moscow could also satisfy Kiev making a good impression at almost zero cost ; risk, in fact, that those troops can serve is becoming more distant. If the federal solution of the institutional Ukrainian is clearly a favorable outcome in Moscow, currently represents the fastest way to peace in the region . Kiev will have to be clever enough to build a plant that knows how to protect state the reasons for the whole of the state in its entirety. This could exploit the Russian fear of new sanctions against an economic system in recession as the Russian one. To do this, however, a strong and stable government and a lot more authoritative than the current interim . Without these conditions, the Ukraine real risk of becoming a country divided , with the eastern territories more and more towards Russia and Western to the EU . But the present scenario sees a greater radicalization of the comparison between the U.S. and Russia , with the position of the EU increasingly blurred by virtue of substantial economic interests and shared between Brussels and Moscow. If the Western Front is not likely to break, can be subject to cracks that Russia will be able to take advantage of, especially in relations between the most important members of the EU, which are also the most industrialized and have concrete needs of Russian raw materials ; However, the Kremlin should not underestimate the pressure that the former Soviet states are exerting on NATO , because of the fear of a new Russian expansion ; although this danger seems remote , the U.S. could exploit these pressures is to intensify the sanctions , which the U.S. military presence on the continent in countries that belonged to the Warsaw Pact. Washington could use the fears of the states of Eastern Europe to his own use to pursue their interests in the old continent by increasing the voltage with the Kremlin . As you can see the solution to the case of Ukraine is already over and the relationship between the two superpowers of the Cold War can not give good predictions .