Reflections on the agreement between China and Russia

The agreement between China and Russia appears to represent an opportunity , which also covers the diplomatic sphere as well as the economic one, for both countries . In fact, those who will benefit most in the long run of this signature , which plays a historical value , but Moscow will not be Beijing. For the Kremlin , the advantages are quite immediate : it is broken diplomatic isolation from the West that Moscow was subject to the facts Ukrainians, fades , if you do not cancel , notably the economic impact of the sanctions and are laying the foundation for international cooperation aimed at countering U.S. hegemony , in the mutual interest of the two countries . But for Russia the benefits end there , though for now there are few. The signing of the agreement with China does not erase the structural problems of the nascent Russian industry , which sees its production machine still firm to the primary sector , supported by abundant deposits of raw materials . Moscow would need , however, to develop an industrial system , which is just sketched , capable of entering into a market of great opportunity as the European one. We understand that with the current Western ostracism this option is not open and the agreement with China is unbalanced in favor of the latter. The Russian industrial production has high quality standards, but does not even have a competitiveness as labor costs , remotely comparable to that of China: if in the future the ties between the two former communist giants were shaking even more , as it seems from the first official statements , Russia would be flooded with Chinese goods without having the possibility of an exchange to Beijing. With this in mind make more and more stringent and exclusive agreement with China for the supply of gas , is likely to encourage the Chinese to the determination of the price. In the long run then , Russia seems to have fewer benefits , that the more complex and less exclusive agreements that could be signed with the EU could provide. Moscow seems to have thrown in the tentacles as Chinese , the more need for quotas for policy development . Russia risks actually a role subordinate to the Chinese, who appear strong partner of the cartel . The reasons for opposition to Washington to Putin are based on geopolitical analysis restricted sense of revenge end in itself and exaltation of nationalism unsuccessful ; not so for China , which has to play the game of economic, political and military on the crucial area of Southeast Asia . Beijing has gained an important ally , which has limited interests in the region, but that can heavily influence the contest , content to rewards all things considered marginal . This increases the political clout of China and also the skill to be able to take advantage of the international situation which was out , drawing the maximum benefit ; From this moment for the U.S. contention with China rises in level, while the commitment in Europe can not be lost, this could result in a lower investment of resources in the Asian region , representing an added advantage for Beijing. The strengthening of China is so obvious : shooting at the international level is undeniable and the Russian gas supplies are ensured ; in particular this second aspect will allow the Chinese government in office to reduce the use of coal and considerably lower environmental pollution , earning acclaim domestically . At the end of the two great superpowers of the second half of the last century will have to do a careful analysis of their conduct and meditate on the next steps in order not to favor the emerging power , a problem that will arise soon in all its urgency .