The scenarios that start after the referenda in eastern Ukraine

The foregone conclusion , but feared the referendum of the eastern regions of Ukraine has been the case . In Donetsk , 89% of voters proclaimed the independence of the important mining region , while in Lugansk was as much as 96% to approve independence from Kiev. For institutions Ukrainian referenda have been a farce , and in fact the technical procedures for operating would seem to support this theory . The lists of voters were missing and were replaced by old electoral rolls , the cards on which you were voted photocopies and in many cases voters have voted more than once , exercising a right of proxy shall not be admissible in official consultations . The presence of many armed men without identifying marks and the absence of neutral observers aggravate even more the conditions and the climate in which it was voted ; Finally, there are various reports of electoral fraud occurred during the election . Even for the U.S. and the EU these referendums have no legal value , but it is impossible to deny the value of policy and practice on the condition of the two areas critical to the already devastated Ukrainian economy and for the same territorial integrity of Kiev. The declarations of independence by Ukraine , which immediately followed the outcome of the referendum , greatly increase the tension in the area and will be a factor for sure aggravation of the situation. While Russia officially silent, but endorse the outcome of the polls , it will be necessary to see what are the scenarios that will be open from now on. It is hard to believe that Ukraine still passively assist in the removal of its territories, as happened with the Crimea. In the eastern regions there is no Russian base , which makes it unassailable these areas , although there are boundaries beyond the massed troops of Moscow. In Kiev , however, is increasingly gaining a counter-current to the excessive and diplomacy in favor of military action . This trend, which is recorded on the rise in the Army, was formed in the belief that if Ukraine had reacted immediately to what is considered to be an interference with the Russian would not have suffered the loss of sovereignty that is now suffering . It should be borne in mind that you are in a phase immediately following the clashes in Odessa and in the eastern regions , the same in which the referendum is held out of state. Moscow, with the outcome of the vote on Sunday , has reached its goal , namely the formation of a motivation to act : the self-determination of the pro-Russian population , which would justify an intervention in its defense. But it got to this point, Moscow could loosen the grip to not affect too much the relations with the West and lead to sanctions that would seriously affect a country at an early stage of industrialization startup. To be a winning strategy in Moscow now would need a more stable and peaceful , which act in the long term to encourage annexation soft , with an initial shape of the federal territories of eastern Ukraine to Kiev, from which to derive the will of separatism . The acceleration by referendum , on the contrary could force Moscow to be able to be called upon to defend a pro-Russian military initiative of the Ukrainian state . This eventuality could result in a dismissal of Moscow from his intentions and ensure only a diplomatic support to the pro-Russian , without providing for the use of military personnel. If this occurs and Kiev intends to regain control of its own pro-Russian territories would be left to fend for themselves by exposing the Kremlin in an optical weaknesses. Putin seems to have foreseen this scenario with the caution with which he had welcomed the initiative of referendum day before the vote, but is now a fait accompli , a situation that seems to be out of hand to the head of the Kremlin. You will enter into an area of ​​complete uncertainty , which, however , could lead to a solution, at least temporarily, in a deal that will limit tragic events. It will be essential for this purpose , see the results of the Ukrainian elections which will arise from the new government , until then everything can happen , and the situation is not stable at all .