The unknowns to Obama in the war with the Caliphate

After the offer of Assad for a joint action between Syria and the United States to defeat the advance of the Islamic State, the answer to Obama did not come to Damascus. The White House can not forget that Assad has repressed peaceful protests of those who asked for greater democracy in the country Syrian causing the conflict that has lasted for three years. However, this does not mean that the Obama administration does not intend to proceed to fight the forces of the caliphate even from the Syrian side. The feeling is that it is in preparation for a military action by air, the kind that is being carried out by the Iraqi side, which will be preceded by monitoring actions of spy planes to accurately prepare the attack on the positions of the fundamentalists. It is unclear whether the United States will make an agreement with Syria, which, however, should this unexpected help, but it is clear that what is being accomplished foreshadows, at least, an agreement, even unwritten non-aggression trai two countries formally enemies. This aspect reveals that the White House is moving in the short term, without having yet developed a plan for the long term. On the other hand are still too many variables that are affecting the scenario in which Obama is obliged to enter. First, the Syrian attitude which will be after any victory over hardliners in the territory of Damascus? Assad has us accustomed to sudden changes in behavior, dictated by an excellent ability to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves to preserve their power; early on and immediately after the start of the uprising, the forecast of a fall of the dictatorial regime was accredited, but with the passage of time Assad has consolidated its position, preventing its decline, although confined to a narrower portion of the original territory. Now that the advance of the Islamic state has become a real danger for the West, Syrian President turns this fact, which is also a danger for Syria, in opportunities to preserve itself, but this result, although an accessory to fight a priority to the caliphate, could worsen the perception, already not exactly positive, the ability of USA to manage international crises. Similarly, however, it could also become an opportunity for Obama to agree on a democratic transition in Syria. This option, in reality seems remote because it could not be fulfilled without a removal of Assad from Syria, a hypothesis to when the tide for the regular army were not the best. More likely, Obama will face the Syrian president who will try to establish itself as a bulwark against the advance of fundamentalism Middle East, a certain image, contrasting with the gravedigger of human rights in his country, but hardly be opposed in certain sectors of the international such as Russia, Iran and Israel. A further aspect of difficulty is the inadequacy of the weapon as an exclusive instrument air for the final victory. Certainly in the first instance the pressure from above will be decisive for the retreat of the forces of the caliphate, but without an effort terrestrial joint, including the purpose of the land, the army of the Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant is intended to remain an opponent won. This, in general terms, implies an escalation of the conflict; the United States are opposed to the use of their troops whether it be a return to Iraq, whether it is to enter the Syrian territory conquered by the Caliphate. Here should come into play ability and political persuasiveness of the administration in the White House, so that this task is performed by contingents from Arab countries; in this respect, the Arab League is the contact person; this seems impossible because a quick resolution of the crisis, but needs the full involvement of nations that are on opposing fronts, but that can all contribute, through their particular influences, the pacification of the area. Surely if you are going to go down this road, the geopolitics of the region will have to be changed, because they will be attended to the needs of the cooperating powers. But this is the most difficult, because you have to balance the demands of subjects such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, deeply enemies, but both are threatened by the same opponent, which is not the caliphate, but the way of thinking and acting of the men who guide him, a mode of action that can affect from the inside were considered resistant to front. This should be the lever on which Obama must act to get the regional powers that collaboration is essential, without which it will be impossible to defeat the Islamic State. If the American president will be able to coagulate forces so different, then it can also handle the Syrian issue with greater ease, conversely a single military victory, even easy, only postpone the problem to be able to do to find a stable equilibrium to the Middle East.