The alliance against the Islamic state, as a factor of stability in the Middle East

Despite the admission to the participation of the raid against the Caliphate, the Arab states faced with different mood in the ongoing war. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have contributed actively with the United States, the bombardment of the positions of the forces of the Islamic state on the territory of Syria, who represents the area more firmly in the hands of extremists and that it is subject to serious humanitarian crises . The statements of Saudi Arabia justify their membership in the alliance against the caliphate reason the defense of the Syrian people and to restore the unity of the country, in addition, of course, the final defeat of the terrorist movement. Behind these words identifies a specific plan for the future of Syria, which will include the participation of Assad; on this point the USA I fully agree, the more difficult that Tehran and Moscow think the same way. For Washington means facing a less easy path in the development of relations with Iran, which only a nuclear deal will smooth out. But participation in the military coalition of Saudi Arabia, which is considered essential by the White House not to allow you to frame the war as a war of religion, promotes the Gulf monarchy that there is a balance of diplomatic relations with the United States, recently biased toward the Shia country. The current framework for the future of Syria sees the US prefer the secular opposition Democratic Saudi Arabia a government without Assad, because too close to the Iranians, perhaps Islamic moderate, while Iran supports the rehabilitation of the Damascus government. Of the other countries participating in the coalition, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are aligned with the Saudi positions, while Jordan is concerned to avoid the involvement of its territory in the expansion of the caliphate, but to achieve greater stability in the Middle East would prefer a Syria free from the current dictatorship. In these political tensions, stands the abstention of Qatar, which sees participation in the alliance by its neighbors, an additional factor of isolation for its foreign policy, which led the country to big contrasts with the other Gulf monarchies . It is no secret that Qatar has supported the Muslim Brotherhood and has supported extremist movements fighting in Syria, which, presumably, was born on the caliphate. At this time Qatar is aligned more with Turkey, which, with its natural ally: Saudi Arabia. This fact constitutes a novelty in the scenario diplomat in the Middle East and created a rift not just among the countries of the Gulf, which is not useful for the United States. In fact the attitude of Qatar seems to be becoming more conciliatory, at least in relation to the USA, by logistical support base for American aircraft; slightly basic differences with the Saudis, in relation to a vision that would prefer a greater admixture of the political system and religion. The picture of the situation therefore remains very fluid and at the base of a stabilization in future perspective can not pass through an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, both between the two sides, which in a very balanced relationship with Washington, which has to maintain a position as much as possible equidistant between the two countries, without compromising their own interests, which, to Saudi Arabia are to return to relations of the first floor, while Iran, are to conclude the negotiations on the nuclear issue and engage in a ultimately cordial relations with Tehran. If Iran did not formally participate in the alliance, which must be essentially an expression of Arab Sunnis in practice with his unit is already fighting on the ground alongside the Iraqi Kurds; this fact is known to all, but because of the necessity of these fighters on the ground, no Sunni country, those of the coalition, abstains in deference to comment on the rule of who keeps silent consents. We are therefore at a possible turning point in the relations of the Middle East, which, however, is only a starting point: if the caliphate will be defeated, at least in the diplomatic field, the question of the future of Syria will be the real test to normalize relations and the structure of the region.