The unknowns for Moscow in the role of a great power

Fears Ukrainians, on the evolution of their dispute with Russia are of a war that could result in a high number of casualties, a conflict within the continent of Europe as to repeat the tragedies of World War II. Certainly it is good to take into account in an appropriate manner this scenario, although an enlargement of a comparison that goes beyond the Ukraine is difficult to verify. However, the statement of Putin, who would be able to take Kiev in a short time, it is certainly true, if Ukraine was left alone. But this is not what he intends to do the West. The creation of an international military force, as proposed by Britain, seems to be, at present, the most practical deterrent to Moscow's intentions, however, the possible deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine opens a scenario in which diplomatic solutions could be overridden , because insufficient, if not open conflict, a situation of unstable equilibrium, which could potentially trigger a confrontation. In reality, neither side wants to get to that point and what is emerging is increasingly becoming a war of nerves. For the Kremlin, the most important thing is get out of the story without losing face; Putin after feeding a growing nationalism, can not give in to the old Cold War enemy. Moscow is also important to gain as much territory as possible to their cause. The proposal for greater autonomy for the pro-Russian territories, in exchange for an end to hostilities with Kiev and the Russian intervention, is the natural solution so that the tactics of the Russian expansion on the territory of Ukraine can continue, postponing the final decision later in time and with any peaceful means. What prohibits, in fact, to an entity that enjoys a high degree of autonomy, to proclaim a referendum on annexation to Russia, based on the experience of the Crimea? Putin has built a long time the current tactic which brings forward the issue and arrive at a solution that has all the aspects of legality. Even the allegations of the Putin government in Kiev did not wish to engage in a political dialogue in order to maintain an attitude too rigid, seem to be functional in the preparation of future excuses to justify further breaches of international law. Together with the Ukrainian game, Russia now has to play that relations with the Atlantic Alliance, increasingly looming against the plans of the Kremlin. Government sources in Moscow have leaked the need for a revision of Russian military doctrine, which is able to take into account new global developments: the increased presence of NATO on its borders, the situation in the Middle East and also the various issues affecting the south east Asia. Of course Russia will increase its military presence in several important areas of the planet, to positions that will certainly not be complacent with the United States. It is, for Washington, threats of no small importance, that are likely to see hampered the already difficult job for the management of crises in the world. Russia could enter into alliance, which currently is not going through a good time, between the USA and the Gulf monarchies, could influence the policy of Assad in an even more determined and could play a role in disputes with China flanking the south east Asia. Retaliation Putin would be a kind of sanction policy in response to economic sanctions imposed on Moscow and what he considers as an invasion of their living space in the Ukrainian question. The result, for the balance of world power, it is an aggravation virtually certain, because the premises indicate that the collaboration between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia is likely to deteriorate dangerously, giving rise to potential new conflicts on the foreign policy front, resulting in reflex block permanently the activities of the United Nations for the constant opposition of Russia in the headquarters of the Security Council, to oppose any American proposal. That to which we may see will be a repeat of the cold war, but in a context no longer bipolar but multipolar, where possible tensions can never be attributed to only two individuals, but must take account of subsequent interpreters who participate in the emerging issue. If the USA this will be a source of complications is not insignificant, the ability of Russia to be able to handle this role as a great power is permissible to feed many doubts. Moscow can not rely on a network of allies comparable to that of Washington, but it is so closely tied to only what is left of the former Soviet empire, while on a broader level can only rely on strategic alliances, nature economic activity, often as a function of American hegemony, but destined not to be so long-lasting in the presence of international news such as to generate new scenarios. The actual size of Russia is a major regional power, and outside its borders can certainly play a role below the global powers USA and China, but above the average world powers, especially for its nuclear arsenal. In contrast, the industrial sector of Russia is still underdeveloped and the country's wealth is based on raw materials of strategic importance, but which may be subject to commercial contractions, as seen in the case of sanctions. The impression is that Putin is opting for a risky tactic, which condemns him to defeat and the subsequent isolation of the country. This fact, however, is even more disturbing because it could generate pressures can not be controlled because of the exaggerated nationalism, in this view becomes even more important, by the West, the search for a political solution to the maximum shared between the parties.