Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 9 ottobre 2014
Germany at the crossroads: to allow it or not, less rigidity on the budgets?
The debate on the economic state of the European Union emphasizes the divisions between the supporters of rigor and among those who would like an easing of budgetary constraints to revive their economies. The role of major shareholder in Brussels remains in the hands of Germany, who is so determined to continue the line of the penalty despite the overt need to deviate from the set values, especially in Italy and France. Berlin should be aware that these two countries combined represent the most important market for German products and the contraction of production, which is affecting Germany, is also caused by the rigidity, which imposes Berlin by the EU. The drop in consumption coupled to the increase in unemployment that complaint rates ever higher, undermines the very idea of European Union and the single currency, thanks to the advance of the right-wing parties in France, and those populists, in Italy, who have put in their goals refutation of the monetary union and political. For the economy of Germany, the euro is essential, because without it, and with the national currency, the mark, would not be able to arrive at the current level of wealth, as it is essential to free trade within the Union European Union. Berlin should reflect on the rigidity of its positions, especially in light of the slowdown in its economy and the causes that have resulted. There are, then also historical reasons that should be remembered to Mrs. Merkel: the cost of unification of West Germany and East Germany and the excess of budgetary constraints during the government of Gerhard Schröder, however balanced by reforms that have contributed significantly to revive the German state, then called the sick man of Europe. But Germany does not want to use a similar behavior with the states of southern Europe, pretending to show interest for reforms in the countries concerned, but at the decisive moment continues to put a veto. The problem is twofold: on the one hand the great mass of German investment was made in stocks that have a low yield and therefore can not afford inflationary other productive system of Germany fears the competition of Italian and French industries in a global context where the margins are shrinking. Not that Berlin has all the wrongs and all liability: the debt situation in Italy and France remains a concern, but it is not to give a line of credit without collateral: Overcoming the limits of the budget should be, first of all values in small, well-determined, supported by significant spending cuts and reforms to be decisive. The real problem in Paris, and Rome is the lack of ability to attract investment, which arise from structural deficiencies of both political systems, materials that Germany wants to be hit by the new regulations. It will be necessary to see if in the presence of these reforms, the attitude of Germany will remain unchanged and if the promises to stimulate the economy through increased demand for goods and services with the flexibility of the deficit, made by Merkel have been sincere. For Italy and France, the effort is burdensome, because the reforms to be implemented will cut public spending and social conditions deteriorate sharply, causing social unrest even at power levels that disturb public order. In this context, the social fabric not give something in return could lead to paralysis of the dialectic within the European Union, with serious consequences for all.
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