Surprise in the first round of Brazilian elections

In the elections in Brazil there is a surprise: the access to the ballot as the second most voted candidate of the Social Democratic Party Neves. So if the first place of Dilma Rousseff, the outgoing president was almost taken for granted, overtaking the candidate who got the second place on the former environment minister Marina Silva, is the true novelty of the Brazilian political scene. The leader of the Socialist Party had long been favored, according to the polls could also undermine Rousseff in the first place, but he got at the end of the first round ballot dl, only 21.14% of the votes against 41.08% Rousseff and 34.2% of Neves. It should be said that the real electoral opposition, on the political level, it was between the two women candidates, both liberal, albeit on different positions, and the exponent Social Democrat, which refers to a more liberal and conservative. The comeback Neves, who still early in the month of September was given to 14% is mainly due to the combination of three factors: the first is the end of the effect Campos, the Socialist candidate, credited by many for the win, died in a plane crash, which resulted in a kind of predestination for Silva, the second the concentration of the electoral battle within the soil progressive, which has weakened the candidate of the Socialist Party, thanks to increased media exposure that the law allowed the Rousseff, and, finally, the third, the peculiar characteristics of Neves, which because of its different visual policy, was the only person with alternative ideas to the progressive candidate. The votes cast by the exponent Social Democrat, now constitute a good starting point to try to undermine Rousseff, who is now fully part in the role of favorite. However, it remains for 21% obtained by Silva, which could subvert the prediction more obvious. It remains difficult to make a prediction about how exercise their vote in the second round of the supporters Silva, ideologically should be closer to Rousseff, but the political campaign of the incumbent president has directed precisely against the leader of the Socialist Party, in homage to a tactical response to the need to eliminate the candidate neighbor, could have caused deep resentment, so as to promote Neves. The first reactions even spoke of a possible alliance between the latter and Silva, to overthrow the supremacy of Rousseff. In reality they are two very distant political actors, where the second runner is the flagship policies are more liberal than those of the incumbent government and, therefore, apparently irreconcilable with the program of the exponent of the Socialist Party. The forecasts could lead to a boycott of the vote supporters of Silva, who, according to the predictions, which may not favor the Rousseff. However Neves might get unexpected acclaim with the program that provides for greater control of public spending and a boost to an economy that complaint a growth lower than expected, to widen the wealth in the weaker. The response of Rousseff will insist on the social gains achieved by the government. Three more weeks and we will know who will lead Brazil.