Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 16 ottobre 2014
The problems in the German grand coalition
The seal of the grand coalition, the government formula based on the understanding of the two major German parties, certainly not ideologically close, is put to the test by the slowdown in the German economy. The party of Chancellor Merkel remains reluctant to acknowledge that the lack of growth of the gross domestic product of Germany can be attributed primarily to two causes: compression of the economies of European countries, with an excessive rigor, which has resulted in a lowering of their purchasing power and then penalized the export of German products in the EU market, combined with a financial policy inside certainly not expansive, which did not allow the construction of infrastructure and, as a result, decreased the potential of the internal market. With these findings, shared not only by the Social Democrats, but also by members of the left part of the Christian Democratic Party, the ideological divide between the two parties of the grand coalition is accentuated, putting at risk the alliance that governs the first country in Europe. This could lead to a request to revise the agreements upon which the coalition, bringing the German political instability in the country. This aspect is feared by both sides, for its impact on the economy, and in fact the leaders of the two parties try not to reveal the contrasts, continuing to profess confidence in the solution of the grand coalition. After all, it appears, at present, no other viable solution, but since there are no alternatives is expected that the two sides will be engaged in lengthy negotiations to seek compromise solutions capable of boosting the economy. However, this possibility is not easy practicability, the German left-wing government is closer to the positions of France and Italy, who wish to loosen the rigor, seeing in this way the only way to boost both individual economic systems, which the entire European system; the position of the members of the Liberal party, by contrast, alleges that the Merkel, to be held hostage to a political force that has achieved an election in less than 15% of his party and not insist enough on the road rigor to avoid any possible incident inflation and keep in place the public finances. As you can see there are two opposing philosophies of those at the base of the two sides, which, although irreconcilable in theory, so far, in practice they have always found a point of agreement, which was facilitated by the good economic performance of the country, precisely those for that would be worse. The problem is also present in front of the social fabric inner being able to present the expansionary fiscal policy not as an end in itself, perception, that over the whole of Europe, is an awareness even in Germany itself. The solution is therefore to increase investment without creating public debt, for Germany it is still, in part, possible, affecting the proceeds of the trade surplus, but this could have some reflections on the yields of government bonds which could rise by creating inflation . To this objection is answered by creating the conditions for a resumption of exports in the market more favorable to Germany: that of the EU. Despite the attempts to explain the contraction of Germany with the Russian embargo, the signals of decline in growth were already present before the crisis in Ukraine, because of reduced exports to the Community market. Germany alone has created these assumptions that we now encounter is going to suffer the consequences; without a review of the financial policy, with the attenuation of rigor to its main customers what you could create a worsening of the general production and thus employment, which can only confirm and aggravate symptoms deflationary already present in the south of 'Europe, exporting more to the north. The hope is that the ills of Germany to be treated with medicine that can heal even more difficult situations, since everything is now in the EU and each action is tied in a single state corresponding to a chain reaction in the other.
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