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giovedì 20 novembre 2014

Military alliance between China and Russia

China and Russia are getting closer and closer. The visit of the minister of defense of Moscow in the Chinese capital, showed that the military cooperation, including those which are the second and the third armed force in the world, has become central in the relations between the two countries. According to China this relationship is a priority, which can not be reflected in diplomatic relations with other countries, and especially with those of the Asian region in relation to the attention of the United States increasing. The two states are already linked by trade relations related to arms, until the embargo on armaments, that China has suffered from the west to the Tiananmen crackdown. Recently, also in terms of energy products, agreements were signed for huge Russian gas supplies to the country of China. Military cooperation is not a novelty, contingents of the two nations have already done joint maneuvers, both naval, in the East China Sea, terrestrial, while for 2015 there are additional exercises in various places, including the Mediterranean. However, the emphasis given to the visiting Chinese Russian Defense Minister, stressed that the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow is in progress and progressive, what looks like a real military alliance, can not do cause concern in the West. Although this military cooperation is described as contributing to peace and stability worldwide, what appears is a kind of new balance of terror, where the US and the EU, are opposing the two states that have been most affected by the communist thought. This common denominator, now married to a market economy without guarantees and social rights, is able to unite the two countries, which already in foreign policy have long since adopted the same policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of states, by blocking 'activities of the UN Security Council. Both countries, internally, have serious deficits related to democracy and they do not like interference and external feedback on their work. Is significant that China has not commented on the conduct of Moscow in Ukraine, just as did Russia in the situation of Hong Kong. The relationship between the two nations is no longer subordinate or enmity, as in previous periods, it has now become equal with great satisfaction on both sides. The two countries agree on the purpose that the military alliance that is emerging must have: the creation of a regional collective security system. Beyond the declarations is all too easy to see that the adversary of this military union can only be the United States: Obama on the Russian side, chose to oppose the claims on Ukraine Russian, while the Chinese side, the growing presence American in the eastern seas, which China considers to be its sphere of influence, has raised the level of confrontation. This situation is likely to create a situation of constant precarious balance, resulting in a geopolitical polarization, which can lead to increasingly difficult relations between the parties, including the EU, with obvious reflections on aspects of diplomatic and economic relations. This is certainly a scenario pessimistic, but it could not be further from the truth if the joint military presence in the two countries were to become too pressing, especially close to reality especially near Washington, both historically, as Japan and South Korea, which is have close relations with the US more recently as Vietnam or Cambodia. The Chinese attitude toward disputes in Asia was officially proclaimed by the President of the country Xi Jinping: China does not like the intrusion of a third party, that would be the US although not named, but the issues have to be resolved between the individual countries concerned; it is impossible not to think of the various territorial disputes around the various disputed islands, which China has more than one Asian country and constitute dangerous situations and potential conflicts. In such a picture the military alliance between China and Russia could be a major expense arms of the other countries in the region and also a greater American presence: all factors that contribute to establishing an ongoing confrontation that could escalate, at best in a cooling of their diplomatic relations.

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