The implications and possible consequences of military aircraft of Iran in Iraq

About the air strikes that the Iranian Air Force would have turned into Iraqi territory against the forces of the Islamic State, there were mixed reactions. On the American Secretary of State has welcomed the decision of Tehran, following the informal commitment of ground forces in Iran who have already joined the Kurds on the ground of Iraqi Kurdistan. The coincidence with the objectives of Washington means a gradual rapprochement between the two countries historically enemies, which will also help close negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. It can not be, in fact, a coincidence that with the momentary lull in the talks, determined by a new deadline yet for the presence of differences, there has been a greater commitment on the part of Tehran; this manifestation of good will, in line with expectations the US, has a dual significance for Iran: on the one hand trying to unlock the negotiations for the nuclear and, secondly, to protect their borders. However, also the geopolitical aspect: Iran, increasing its participation in the conflict can say his opinion on the future of Syria. It is clear that the American administration is working on the short term, putting as the first goal the defeat of the caliphate and returning later every other issue, especially with countries that do not officially fall in its allies. Probably the White House strategy, against Iran is to first solve the nuclear issue and, possibly, that of the presence of the Islamic State of Iraq on the ground and then see to define the situation in Syria, provided that, in the meantime, do not both managed to defeat both Assad forces of the caliphate on the territory of Syria and deliver the country moderate opposition, to present a situation in Tehran accomplished. This option appears difficult to implement for the material difficulties on the ground and what the definition would refer the Syrian issue with the involvement of Iran, on positions similar to those of Russia but opposite to those of the US and also to those of the Gulf monarchies. The issue is likely to become tangled and all interest of the various parties step up their role at the negotiating table. Then there is also the issue of the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, for now shelved by the Agreement between Erbil and Baghdad, but that Tehran's interesting, because of the presence on its territory Kurdish ethnicity, which always aspires to independence. For Iran, like Turkey, have a sovereign Kurdish state on the borders can be embarrassing because it could increase the appearance of separatist Kurds occupying territories formally belonging to Tehran and Ankara. If the attitude of Ankara's knowledge, the Kurdish demands are considered the most dangerous of the caliphate and from here descends the lack of commitment against the Islamic Republic of Turkey, Iran, at this time, is to be a strategic alliance with the Iraqi Kurds for limit the danger of fundamentalist Sunnis. It remains to be seen what the attitude of Iran when the jihadist threat will be averted. But the Iranian military aviation flights were not considered positive from Iraq, which, through its Prime Minister, has confirmed that it had given no permission to fly over its airspace to air forces in Tehran. This attitude, however, falls in the conduct formally assumed Iraq do not want any foreign military force on its territory. In reality, the Iraqi prime minister has not denied the Iranian intervention, which must be conducted certainly not independently, but agreed, then, if this hypothesis is true, the statements of the prime minister in Baghdad fall into one strategy for conduct not irritate Sunni tribal clans who have sided with the state of Iraq. In conclusion, the active participation of the Iranians to fight the caliphate can be determined in the short term, as thought by the US, but will bring the elements of disruption in future developments of regional balance.