The Libyan crisis threatens to spread to Tunisia

The Libyan situation is likely to intrude in Tunisia and deteriorate with the occurrence of the worst predictions: those of a weld between the elements of the Caliphate and those of Boko Haram; according to statements by Libyan Prime Minister Al Thani, in fact, terrorist groups from Nigeria they would be to join with those of the caliphate, approaching the country of Tunisia. The frontier of Tunis and Algeria, is a critical point for the presence of terrorists close to al Qaeda, who is hiding in the area, encouraged by the presence of a mountain range with almost inaccessible valleys. The Tunisian authorities are struggling with these Islamist factions since December 2012, with campaigns military land and air strikes. To avert a possible entry into its territory, which could threaten the territorial integrity of the country, Tunis has deployed along the Algerian border, army units, the National Guard and Customs, also were alerted all the Tunisian armed forces that can count on these overall numbers: 27,000 in the Army, 4,500 in the Navy and 4,000 in aviation. Despite these precautions in last night, in a terrorist attack along the border, were killed four policemen. A possible attack on its value would Tunisia special significance because it is the country from which matches the Arab Spring and is also the only one where the revolt in a democratic sense was successful, leading to the government formations secular from religious and non-contaminated. It can be assumed that the design of the Islamic State provides for an ambitious project, which intends to take advantage of the situation of great instability in Libya, to win the majority of the territory and, at the same time, attack Tunisia to break the symbol of an Arab country that rejected the Islamist influence more integral. This development can not yet covered by international diplomacy, which continues to underestimate the possible impact that Boko Haram could lead in the overall picture of the situation of the southern Mediterranean. The attitude of the Western powers is too wait and confident towards a diplomatic solution that seems impossible with current developments. The project would be to do sit around a table, the two governments in Libya to find a common synthesis able to cope with the terrorism of the caliphate. This is clearly a tactic late, which was pursued much earlier, rather than underestimate the problem; also because the two governments are divided by a great rivalry that determines different views on ways to fight the Islamic state. If the democratically elected government in exile in Tobruk, supported and agreed actions in Egypt, one of Tripoli has denounced them as an invasion of the airspace of the country; it is, as we see, of two irreconcilable positions, which indicate how to heal the differences there may be an much greater than that available to fight the caliphate, which requires urgent decisions. Exists, then the tribal factor, ie the presence of more than 140 tribes in the country, which are the only social structure, and that this can not exclude in a negotiation to pacify the country. This situation of deep division is attributable to the responsibility of the West, that after the fall of Gaddafi, has left to itself a country that was not provided with political and social structures mature to build stable equilibria for the nation. These intentions are still valid, but in a context of national peace and without any outside interference such as the presence of the militia of the Islamic State. At the moment the most urgent thing is to eradicate the presence of the caliphate and then engage in the construction of the stability of Libya, which is essential to the overall balance of the Mediterranean and thus also of Europe. The United Nations must be taken as soon as the resolution that allows the use of force as requested by Egypt, just so you can begin a process of effective regional balance essential for peace on both shores of the Mediterranean.