Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 2 febbraio 2015
Ukrainian conflict: the two sides could mobilize more troops
The failure of the talks in Minsk, between Ukrainian authorities and representatives of the rebel pro-Russian, together with the increase of the tension between the two parties, for the recent violence, worsens the overall picture of the story, to which must be added international developments which relate to projects in the United States. First, the two sides plan to appeal to a mobilization of men to be involved in the conflict, to increase the respective military force. The rebels have announced plans to recruit within their ranks, at least 100,000 men, to extend the military offensive to parts of the territory of the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, which are still under the control of the armies of Kiev. The main objective would be the city of Debaltseve, which holds an infrastructure whose control is considered crucial by the command of the rebels: the railway junction connecting the nerve centers of the pro-Russian forces, the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk. In this area the fighting were particularly violence in recent weeks. Some analysts of Kiev's decision could mean that the rebels do not have enough troops to achieve their goals and seek to raise the level of confrontation with a greater presence of actual on the ground, it remains to be seen what the weapons with which will be equipped these reinforcements. One solution would be a greater Russian commitment in providing material to the rebels; this hypothesis would be the basis of Obama's decision to provide regular army of Kiev, lethal equipment defined and therefore no longer material or logistical doctor, but true and own weapons, even sophisticated and not only conventional, dedicated to raising the quality of Ukrainian military response. The budget could reach up to the sum of three billion dollars and would make Washington an international actor directly involved in the conflict. This implication could open future scenarios very delicate on the international scene. First Russia would be justified to participate equally official in the conflict, with the motivation of the threat of its own borders. The ability to mobilize the army of Moscow, for possible support for the pro-Russian rebels would allow entrance pretty fast in the territory covered by the fighting. Before you get to this step, certainly contemplated by Putin, the Kremlin can provide just as much, if not more, supply of weapons, abandoning any hesitation and caution. But the US before taking this step should carefully consider the positions of the Western allies, who are certainly not as firm as those of the White House. The alignment with the positions of NATO has been accepted so far so far from enthusiastic, especially for the reduction of turnovers that Western countries have suffered for the application of sanctions. It must be specified that the commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the crisis, with the exception of Germany, has so far failed in favor of a flattening of the line dictated by the US. On the military response that Kiev intends to give the mobilization of the rebels, consists of an equally large call to arms; speaking of 50,000 units, which would certainly better equipped than the rebels. The fear of an advanced so massive troop Ukrainian is the involvement of civilians in Donetsk, in reprisals, since the majority of the population has always expressed its support to the solution of independence from Kiev and close to what is considered the mother country: Russia .
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