Forecasts very uncertain for the elections in Israel

A few days before the Israeli elections, to be held March 17, the polls presented a situation of deep uncertainty. The main causes are due to the fear of a strong turnout, the strong political fragmentation in different parties, which could complicate the formation of alliances, the emergence of populist parties and the excessive personalization of the movements participating in the electoral race. We are facing similar situations that are occurring in all Western democracies, strongly affected by the deep dissatisfaction of the electorate, less and less attracted by the major parties, for a sense of distrust in politics, as a service to the community. This scenario could lead to the condition where the first party of the country, will not be the one that will form the coalition government. In this case assume a decisive capacity of aggregation of the two major opposing forces. One factor not secondary is the customization of the lists, where it seems to do better grip on the electorate personality leadership of the party, instead of his program. The proportion of seats that ensures the governability of the country is set at least 61e is feared that the mosaic of parties competing in the elections very complicate reaching this threshold, forcing opposing forces to collaborate in a grand coalition government. This possibility is much feared by Israeli analysts, because would see the creation of an executive composed of parties and personalities with opposing ideas and also divided by deep grudges, factors that could cause a kind of block decisions because of the slowness of the discussion for the need to find a synthesis unambiguous. Practically a scenario where no governability would occur in the form of institutional paralysis. A condition, which in the eyes of an international observer, the country Israel should definitely avoid, to deal, in one way or another the challenges ahead. However, the major international issues, in which Israel is inevitably involved, do not seem to capture the attention of the majority of voters, worried about the rather poor performance of the economy and the lack of solutions to the social problems that affect the country and because of what the Netanyahu visit to the US has not had the impact on the polls that the Israeli prime minister was expected. The problems with Palestine, have been raised almost solely from formations Israeli Arab, representing 20% ​​of the population of which 15% is part of the active electorate. In this population is expected to approach in contrast with abstention of which are usually protagonists. The need to reach an agreement with the Palestinians is a hot topic, especially after the persistence of the problem of the settlements and the Gaza war. If this part of the electorate would vote for compact opponents of the current government the uncertainty about the outcome of the vote could take less uncertain contours and encourage the coalition opposed to Netanyahu, who has put in his election program the solution of the Palestinian issue in Its main points.