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lunedì 23 marzo 2015

Germany and Greece a bilateral meeting with many unknowns

The next meeting between the leaders greek Tsipras and the German Chancellor, Mrs. Merkel, should be an occasion of greater detente to address the problems between the two states, without the pressure given by the presence of others when you should discuss the debt greek. In addition to issues European leaders of the two countries should focus more precisely on the bilateral relations between Athens and Berlin, quite deteriorated because of financial obligations imposed by the German government. The feelings towards Germany in greek country are at historic lows, Berlin is seen as responsible for the deterioration of the living conditions of the population of Greece, while in Germany there are many, but not all, to wish a euro exit of Athens. The problem of poor perception that is developing against Germany, is not only present abroad, and not just in Greece, but even within the same German soil. The latest cover of a popular German magazine, portrays, with a photomontage, Merkel amid general photographed Nazis during the occupation of the country greek in 1941, under the Parthenon, during the Second World War. Moreover, even the demonstrations for the inauguration of the new headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, have shown further, as part of the German company is contrary to a Germany that imposes an excessive rigor of line with other European countries. Although this is still a minority opinion, the phenomenon is growing and could undermine the grand coalition government. For these reasons, more specifically political, Merkel will try to find a solution with Greece, which does not seem too oppressive, but the task is far from easy, Athens seems to have not yet met any request on reforms and urgently needs cash to pay off the upcoming deadlines. It is a half billion euro in March and two billion for April to meet its obligations with the International Monetary Fund. According to some analysts, the time would be too short to implement these sums. Greece, then, should call on the reserves of pension funds, perspective too unpopular for the government greek and then unwrapped in any way, or face an emergency solution that would allow the payment of salaries and pensions. The perspective is to issue promissory notes, essentially beating again a kind of its own currency and an alternative to the euro. There were three possibilities envisaged for Greece for the resolution of the crisis: the first to be able to write off, solution on time, that is, in the very short term, it does not seem possible; the second declare the default and leave the euro; the third to take an alternative system to the euro, while remaining in the single currency and take time to pay the debt. For now, the greek government programs have always been the ones to stay in the euro, but to get any deferred because of a hypothetical economic growth of the country, but the ostracism of a good part of the European Union, led by Germany, seems to prevent this solution. Here then the horizon the expedient of a parallel currency system, which would allow to survive in the short term, but would create a sort of artificial economy and put the country in a kind of limbo. It is an event that is the antechamber of the output from the single currency, with all the implications and consequences, especially international politics, as appropriate. Germany has therefore the responsibility of the future of the euro and even supranational military alliances, which should count for more than economic ones. If Athens will be forced to use this gimmick will crack all the economic and political system and also western Europe as a whole, with consequences that will bring changes in the global balances ninth indifferent.

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