Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 26 marzo 2015

Saudi Arabia bombed the Shiite rebels in Yemen

A military maneuver, by the air forces of Saudi Arabia bombed strongholds of Shiite rebels in Yemen. The decision was made to block the advance Shiite request of the President of Yemen. Are part of the coalition politically, in addition to Saudi Arabia, including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait which should be complemented by Egypt and the United States, through logistical support and intelligence. A justification of the operation there was talk of a move necessary to reject, in addition to the Shiite rebels, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic state, which could take advantage of the situation. Actually the real goal was to protect the legitimate government and prevent the Shiites could take power in the whole country, which borders Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has repeatedly expressed the fear of having an ally very close to the borders with Iran and has finally decided to act of war. This concern was shared by the other countries of the Persian Gulf and Egypt, who fear the alteration of the respective zones of religious influence between Sunnis and Shiites; this fear has had to give up even Washington, not to disrupt further relations with Sunni allies, in a dangerous balancing act, which will bring some problems in relations with Iran. It remains to be seen how Tehran, which has supported the Shiite rebels in Yemen, with the intent to increase its area of ​​influence, but encroaching so risky and coming too close to the Saudis. On the international maneuvering Arabia can be justified by the request for help of the Yemeni President and the fear of dangerous situations too close to its territory, a sort of preemptive protection. Indeed regional stability was much closer to being compromised, but the Arab action could have a detrimental effects on the long term; In fact, if the short term the situation is likely to restore the legitimate government, but the spokesman of the Shia have already spoken of a declaration of war. This juncture shows that the greater probability of the future of the country of Yemen, is a scenario of instability. Indeed, it seems very unlikely that Tehran will only be a spectator. In these cases, Iran, Iraq and Syria to think, is used to deploy their men on the ground without official insignia, to give aid to the Shiite populations involved in acts of war. If you come to a use of actual Iranians on Yemeni territory, you could watch the fighting with soldiers of the armies of the Gulf countries, who have already expressed their willingness to intervene on the ground, with military and diplomatic consequences of difficult resolution. In this phase, the Americans are working alongside the Sunni countries, probably based on the principle of not wanting to alter their respective areas of influence based on religion, a subject that is always presented very delicate when there is a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But in the immediate aftermath Washington must put in place all its diplomatic strength to prevent degeneration of this local conflict, including through the protection of minorities in the territories Shiite Sunni, this is in particular the case of Yemen and in all countries where such protection is absent. It would thus prevent other comparisons with Iran and not give him a chance to work, even at the diplomatic level. This scenario, when it's just a hope, the situation is compromised, even for the strong resentment of the Gulf monarchies of negotiations for the Iranian nuclear issue, which remains a fundamental objective for American foreign policy: for the White House to be a difficult case untangle.

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