Politica Internazionale

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venerdì 10 aprile 2015

Assad is allied with the Palestinians

The battle that takes place in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, near Damascus, beyond its tragedy, is likely to have a very strong political impact on the fate of the Syrian conflict. The population of the camp, before the civil war in the country was about 150,000 people, stationed at the site since 1957 as a result of conflicts with the Israelis in 1948, which was the initial choice of neutrality among the contenders. The long duration of the conflict, which came in the fifth year, has caused several differences within the refugee camp, dividing into opposing factions the various components of the field. The strategic location of Yarmouk, located on the outskirts of Damascus and then real gateway to the Syrian capital has determined the importance of the conquest by the forces of the Islamic State, which have identified the strategic potential to reach up to the nerve center Syrian power. The number of inhabitants has been greatly reduced by the military pressure, up to the current 18,000 of which, it is estimated, at least 3,500 are children. The escape from the refugee camp was progressive, mainly caused by the blocking of humanitarian aid, which caused starvation deaths and serious situations hygienic; the fighting of recent days have caused international outrage and did ask the UN to open humanitarian corridors to relieve the suffering of the population, which seem to become unsustainable. In this context it is determined the need for the creation of an alliance of Palestinian fighters to launch a joint action with the armed forces of Assad to expel the fighters of the caliphate from the Yarmouk camp. For Palestinians, it is a positive action, to be undertaken with the military establishment in Damascus, although these have repeatedly bombarded the field with explosive barrels, causing several civilian casualties, however, violence by men of the caliphate is considerably greater , so much to do to align on the same positions of opposition to the Islamic State of the Palestinian National Authority and Hamas, organizations that seemed to move towards fundamentalism of the caliphate, especially in anti Israeli. The political significance of this alliance is expected to revive the role of Assad as a determinant in the war against the Sunni militias and comes after the informal recognition of the Secretary of State, Kerry, who has tried, in this particular stage, the dictator of Damascus as less danger to the State Islamic and, above all, how can a bank derives far more dangerous with the potential conquest of Syria by the caliphate. This development of the situation brings a new set to further complicate the tangled skein of international relations, which revolve around the war in Syria and throughout the Middle East. It seems legitimate to believe that this development is supported by Washington, albeit unofficially, as, likewise, should be for Iran and Hezbollah, which have always sided with Assad, especially against the Sunnis, but, certainly, not you can say the same of states more or less close to the Palestinians, such as Jordan and Egypt, not to mention the Gulf monarchies, which, so far have not wasted much of their commitment to the protection of the Palestinian refugee camps. If men of the caliphate will be defeated in the field of Yarmouk, the big winner will Assad, who will bring a tangible proof of his role against the Islamic state, as, moreover, already identified by the US. At that point, the centrality of the Syrian conflict will again become prominent even against the situation in Iraq, as a starting point to eradicate definitively the caliphate. The logical consequence will be an Assad, probably weakened militarily, but strengthened politically, ready to play all its possibilities to maintain its presence in the country Syrian. In the face of this possibility will be necessary to see the reactions of the Sunni countries, hoping to reverse the positions of influence in Syria: new developments facing the world.

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