Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 16 aprile 2015

Greece and Russia closer and closer

The collaboration between Athens and Moscow is getting closer. The agreement for the supply of Russian missile systems, the same that will be supplied to Iran, the Ministry of Defense greek, inaugurates a collaboration on the military front; this occurs despite the severe financial crisis of the Hellenic country, which proceeds to purchase essentially for two reasons. The first is the fear of the proximity to the eternal rivals Turks, who have carried out a reinforcement of their arms and stood on a line geopolitical not too bright, motivated by sectarian government of Erdogan, tending to identify even exaltation nationalism an instrument of national policy. The second reason relates to an attitude of greater availability, that the executive left, must keep with the Greek armed forces, to promote more peaceful relations. But beyond, these contingent reasons, it is important to stress that relations with Russia appear in constant progression coinciding with the increase of the possibility of default greek. For Athens promises now, in addition to the possibility of leaving the euro, also the possibility of a failure continuing to remain in the single currency. This solution would be a safeguard for those who fear an output policy also by the European Union to enter into a more binding Russian orbit. Putin has shown unusually cautious and careful not to cause susceptibility Brussels, assuring repeatedly that Moscow did not provide any financial support to Athens, but it is undeniable that the attention of the Kremlin to the possibility that the evolution of the situation will provide is very high. Remains undeniable that the position of Greece in the European Union, both of deep opposition to sanctions against Russia and the continuous approaches represent a clear signal to the Western community as a whole. At this point the cooperation between Moscow and Athens may take only two directions: in Greece is linked inseparably to Russia, leaving the EU and possibly the Atlantic Alliance, while in the other, the Hellenic country can be exploited by the West as a privileged interlocutor, to create the conditions for peace with the Kremlin. This second possibility is certainly welcomed by European countries, but much less than the US, which does not intend to give in no position towards Russia; Yet it would be a possibility not to discard if you wanted to really take a deal of detente. At this stage Russia is moving with great circumspection, Moscow is aware of the difficulties of Greece and the possibility, not too remote, to create a sort of alliance, which could also involve Serbia, on the basis of common cultural and religious elements, Putin would arrive so virtually within the European territory, thanks to the possibilities offered by the international scenario. The center of it all is Athens, but not only, especially in Berlin you have to decide how to help Greece, unless you want to enable it to remain in Europe. The point of the current situation does not allow to reason only on the basis of financial calculations, but must include evaluations of a strategic nature, that the current structure of Europe is not able to make enough, for obvious shortcomings of political order. The US, on the other hand, have spoken out in favor of a solution that still see Greece in Europe, but did not go beyond declarations of ritual, not to make them look like a meddling in European affairs, a possible action support of Athens. What at this time plays in favor of Europe is the poor economic condition of Russia, to the combined effect of the sanctions and the decline in crude oil prices, however, for an important strategic counterpart, Moscow could get to make a sacrifice, that would also bring great division in the heart of Brussels and, consequently, in the overall context of American politics. If this analysis has some merit, it is incomprehensible how the attitude of Berlin and Brussels is still marked by the most complete rigidity, resulting in a substantially higher risk of making highly uncertain the future regional.

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