Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 28 aprile 2015
Is there a plan B in Greece?
The uncertainty of the future of Greece creates alarm in European finance ministers, as to foreshadow a dreaded plan B. It is unclear if the plan B, it means leaving the euro or something alternative, although for the majority of economic leaders of the European Union countries, the permanence of Athens in the euro is out of the question. However if they were to continue the stalemate in the European economic and meetings you were to get to the fateful date eleven next May with Greece still in severe liquidity crisis and powerless repay the expiration date of 700 million euro, the Hellenic country would formally failed. This possibility could really open the door to escape the single currency? In the absence of remedies by the other members, and without wanting to assess the political consequences, is not insignificant, and with obvious economic repercussions later, fate might seem that. But it would also mean the impossibility of creditors, which include some European states, to get back what lent Athens. This motivation seems to be the most concrete to prevent Greece the official exchange rate of the currency. In aid of the Greek Government would also include the favorable conditions of access to credit with affordable rates especially on short-term securities. This solution would allow the government in charge of the new adjustments necessary maneuvers, combining them with the necessities imposed by the electoral program. This scenario, however, may be too optimistic, especially when compared with the liquidity crisis of the Greek banks, subject to a constant flight of capital, which we try to remedy the liquidity in local government; but it is essentially a game of spin, that does not bring new money to the Greek cause. What worries are the social consequences, such as the payment of salaries to civil servants and the block of the already difficult market. One solution would be some sort of plan B, but outside of the context of the European Union and matured within the Greek borders. Essentially Greece could stay in the euro, using the European currency for international trade and create an alternative currency only for the inner perimeter. It would be two systems of exchange simultaneously and independent of each other, essentially Athens for the territory of Greece may reprint currency, which would not have external validity. The measure could alleviate the difficult social conditions and could help to save the euro, which came from exports, tourism and loans. Certainly a portion should be invested for the import, but the state coffers would be raised by direct outputs inside. However, this being non-convertible currency, we would miss the income tax, unless you create an internal conversion only for particular cases, such as precisely what taxes. Certainly one of the contributory factors would be an inflation rate tending upwards, if the issuing body will not be able to give an adequate and balanced financial policy. From the political point of view this solution could open the attempt of emulation for other economies in crisis, especially if the government were to arrive movements or parties against the single currency, which could find foothold in a previous concrete to make a first step to break away from ' euro. Difficult though that Greece tries a solution so extreme, that could mean only one exclusion from the single currency. It seems impossible, in fact, that Germany, for example, agree to a gimmick that would create an alternative to the euro, albeit only on the local scale: this would represent an attack, however the only Community policy that Brussels, albeit under the directions of Berlin, manages to do. For the solution to the riddle greek, remains only as long as the decisive factor to be granted to Athens to stabilize its situation and create favorable conditions for recovery. Without that creditors of Athens are intended not to collect a debt. This beyond the fact of strict accounting.
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