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martedì 14 aprile 2015

Tension rises between Saudi Arabia and Iran

The cancellation of all flights that connect Iran to Saudi Arabia, especially in favor of the pilgrims to Mecca, is the latest step in an escalation of increasing concern in the relations between the two states. Beyond the episode, which resulted in the decision to Tehran, we are facing a growing tension between the two countries, always on opposite positions, due to the evolution of the issue of Yemen. Since Saudi Arabia is committed militarily in person, to quell the rebellion of the Huthi, belonging to a current by Shiites, Iran is likely to be involved in an equally sharp in question. However, the comparison is deliberately addressed the possible involvement of Iran, by the Saudis, for reasons which are mainly outside the specific context. Saudi Arabia is highly irritated by the rupture of isolation against Iran, which occurred with the signing of preliminary agreements of Lausanne on the nuclear issue and the fact that Tehran can acquire nuclear technology, officially for civilian purposes, particularly that is considered by the Saudis as the antechamber of military development. This evolution has made relations with the United States, which have become increasingly tense in conjunction with the achievement of the agreement. What fears Saudi Arabia has more influence in the country of Iran in the region, influence that could also be increased by the possible control of the state of Yemen, where the Shiite minority is still a third of the country. According to some American analysts, the issue of Huthi is nothing new in Yemen, in fact previous disturbances caused by this minority had no protection from Tehran, and Iran currently is confined to political support without any intervention. What analysts say the US is that the fact of belonging to a branch of Shiite religion does not automatically have the support of the Iranian military. But the current situation has brought the level of apprehension of the Saudis over the limit of the policy warnings; Riyadh Yemen considers its own sphere of influence and the fear of seeing expanded on this territory the shadow of Iran, has produced a reaction that can really trigger a possible intervention of Tehran. If the fact that within the territory of Yemen is a possible presence of Iranian intelligence agents, this, however, is by no means certain. Most likely that if the Saudi military action were to continue, the Iranians will provide some kind of response, to comply with the doctrine that they have adopted and which sees them protectors of the Shiite minority, as leading country in this religious branch of Islam. The action of the Saudis is not limited to the military, but are carried out on the political level with the international effort to create a force between the main Sunni countries, bringing back the issue to a dangerous religious confrontation. Saudi is seeking the involvement of Turkey and Pakistan, but for the moment did not get the support you want, if not with declarations of principle and thus risking to carry on alone the action taken. Even the United States there is a support mostly due, but that had no practical effect, paradoxically, but up to a certain point, the position is more like that of Israel, which is joined to Saudi Arabia by the great aversion to Tehran, but can not support openly Riyadh. Much of the development of the situation will depend on the available help of Huthi in Tehran and the will of Arabia to increase the military pressure without the search for a negotiated solution to the crisis.

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