Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 9 aprile 2015

The US opposed to an Iranian intervention in Yemen

Filed for now, the preliminary treaty on Iranian nuclear, Washington back to focus on its Arab allies in the Gulf and, indirectly, on Israel. The occasion was the situation in Yemen, where the United States has deployed against Iran, which had sent military ships to support the Shiite uprising, under the guise of anti-piracy maneuvers in the Strait of Aden. The warning of the White House focused on the issue of regional stability and against the intention of Tehran to subvert the current balance, the US does not seek confrontation with Iran, but stressed that work with the usual allies if they will be threatened by action to endanger the integrity. It is a kind of act, which aims to re-establish relations on quieter ties with the Gulf countries and in general with the Sunni Arabs, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who remain strongly opposed to the solution on the nuclear agreed with Tehran. If you can understand the practical reasons for this stance, it is, in fact, justified by the maintenance of bilateral relations, both by the need to want to prevent a widening of the area of ​​influence of Iran, which could have dangerous consequences in terms of regional stability , the other side can not understand how the US does not want to intervene diplomatically, of nations guilty of having financed fundamentalist movements converged then in the Islamic state. The American dilemma is certainly difficult to solve, because it has to do with a central area returned to its strategic nature, but that the intent of Obama, was to become of the background in favor of a greater attention to be devoted to Southeast Asia, considered vital for economic development and the fight against the advance of China. The US President has been too quick to close the issue of Iraq, leaving a state devoid of appropriate institutional structures and still hostage to violent religious divisions, the same that now are feeding, on a plane wider war that is going through Iraq , Syria and the Yemen. The US has obligations with the Gulf monarchies, which are certainly not allies presentable from the point of view of human rights, nor is Egypt and even Iran; However, these are regional actors with whom relations have obliged. Right now for the US is vital to maintain relationships antecedents rapprochement with Iran, trying to keep as much as possible the power structures present. On the one hand the Arab Sunnis, despite everything, still have important safeguards in the fight to the caliphate and extremism in general, on the other relations with Iran, despite having considerably extended, not yet normalized so complete and the moves of Tehran are monitored continuously; while it is true that the Iranian military support on the ground was and will be crucial against the Islamic state, the desire to grow by Iran as a regional power, raises some concerns in Washington, which creates problems the US executive, both internally, with Republicans who hold a majority in both houses of parliament, both on the international market, with constant references by historians Sunni allies. Despite this context, the American threat to Iran, while still in the terms, seemed more like an act of practice, so much so that it took place after the conclusion of the negotiations in Lausanne. But for the USA scenarios of this type are intended to be repeated if the contrast with Tehran will be destined to fade, Washington, that is, is faced with a situation in widely varying geometries on the international level, and the first case is intended to create deep contrasts, very more than for Yemen, will come when you will decide to seriously address the Syrian crisis and the fate of Assad, at which point the White House will have to make a considerable effort on the diplomatic level, to reconcile the various forces in the field, including Russia, with which it is always necessary to find a point of contact and balance. Damascus is not expendable to Tehran, while the Gulf monarchies and Egypt are pushing for a government Sunni moderate, but the strength available to Assad could make it certain to contain the Islamic state. About what Washington could benefit indirectly from the recent meeting between Turkey and Iran in the hope of some form of detente between the two branches of Islam.

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