Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 11 maggio 2015
Four Arab heads of state have deserted the summit between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The summit organized by Barack Obama with the Gulf Cooperation Council, will have important absences. Will be four monarchs who do not participate in the meeting wanted by the United States to reassure the Gulf monarchies about their perception on the disengagement that Washington seems to advance towards the region, dedicated to other priorities. In addition to the Sunni states worry, there are the growing contacts, judged as concessions on the nuclear issue, to Iran. What is feared most regards their increased importance in the Middle East by Iran, which appears to start at the exit from the isolation in which the country of Iran seemed doomed, for his anti-American policy and its intentions to develop technology Atomic. Contributing to the increased importance of Tehran were essentially two factors: the negotiations on the nuclear issue, involving the major powers of the world and put an end to the isolation of the diplomatic Shiite Islamic republic, their celebration, which presented not as Tehran one was uncompromising, but able to engage in a dialogue based on international relations and the results achieved, which sanctioned a victory for Iran, you start to see themselves recognized by the international community, with some exceptions, the right to develop nuclear technology for civilian purposes. This is preparatory to the end of economic sanctions, which means the presence at the scene of the economy and finance of an opponent with great potential, just against Gulf monarchies divided Iranian state also from a religious rivalry. Diplomatic aspect complements what did Iran on the ground military in containing the advance of the Islamic state, terrorist group of matrix Sunni, that has upset the behavior of the Islamic terrorist organizations, from a mode propaganda implemented through all attacks' exercise of sovereignty over a defined territory. For Washington this factor represented a threat that still has urgency in the need for its solution; but the conditions of Obama have always been only ones to fight the caliphate only with aircraft and strictly prohibit the use of American troops on the ground. The failure of military aviation, albeit important, has not filled the need of a presence on the ground, vacuum filled by Kurdish fighters accompanied by the Iranians. One reason for the cooling of relations between the US and the Gulf states has been the attitude of the latter in finance formations who then gave birth to the Islamic state, in order to weaken the Syrian regime and tear Syria to Iranian influence . The White House, in total contrast, was to encourage the training non-denominational, but this has not been, revealing a poor coordination of purpose and action among the countries of the Gulf and the Americans, traditionally allies. After the Islamic state has escaped the control of the lenders, Washington did not like the lack of commitment with which the Gulf monarchies have responded to US demands for a greater commitment. This whole scenario, in its complexity, has dismissed the Sunni countries of the Persian Gulf by the United States; However, Washington needs to recover a long-standing relationship, especially to continue to be a sort of balancing factor in the new arrangements that have become apparent in the Middle East. What chela White House must absolutely avoid is a direct comparison, based on religious factors, which do go down those geopolitical, involving the Gulf monarchies opposing Iran. For these reasons, it was organized the summit, which is to meet the need of the US to settle conflicts and develop a new vision for Middle East security. This requirement should be shared by the Sunni states of the Gulf, but the defections to the participation of leading figures reveals that the distance between the two sides is still substantial. A not to participate will be the King of Saudi Arabia, the Emir of Bahrain, the Sultan of Oman and the monarch of the United Arab Emirates. Only the leaders of Qatar and Kuwait will participate in person at the top. The four monarchs will be absent from several dignitaries, including Crown Prince and foreign ministers, but their absence is a clear signal of a live malaise against the foreign policy conducted by Obama in the region. It should also be said that the attitude of the Gulf monarchies towards developments in the Middle East appeared very unpreparedness to carry out the events. These nations have remained entrenched in traditional positions and have not been able to grasp the changes taking place on the international stage, the aim being defense almost to the bitter end of the status quo. The development of relations with Iran, for example, was not countered with improvised attempts to steal the Iranian influence on Syria, but it was necessary to deal with it from a different point of view, able to seize the opportunity to stabilize the region instead of entering new tools for altering the balance. Obama has not been a great president in foreign policy, but could offer sufficient guarantees to protect new forms of dialogue. The Gulf countries, have, however, chosen the opposite path and the Yemeni case proves it. Not that Iran has every reason, what is feared by the Gulf countries is understandable: if Tehran comes from isolation can really alter the regional balance, but this can happen only in a state of conflict exasperated; moreover the theocracy in Tehran and the Gulf monarchy, politically are very similar and this very strong similarity could help increase the current tense moment. Do not take this opportunity it leads Obama appears another tactical error, as ever at this time the US may represent the balance between the two sides, but they need all the help possible.
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