Obama's plan for the new equilibrium Middle East

The summit held between the US and allies in the Persian Gulf, deserted, however, by some members of the most important Sunni monarchies, tried to assure the Saudis countries, about the US attitude towards them and tried to redefine the balance of buoyancy of the region. A protagonist, not liked by the Saudis and of regional, was absent, as not acceptable by the Gulf monarchies, but his presence was ensured by the object of the talks. The intention of Obama, in fact, is to redefine, at regional level, the role of Iran, for now, to get out of international isolation. The first move of the US president has been to ensure the support of the United States to the Gulf countries, as due to long-standing allies. Despite the cooling of relations with the Sunni monarchies, he had to rapprochement between Washington and Tehran, because of negotiations on the nuclear issue and on US energy policy, which has become more and more independent of the oil sheiks, for the US the stability of the western part of Persian Gulf is out of the question, within the existing structures; the best proof is the support that the White House has assured in the conflict against the Shiite rebels in Yemen. The situation is different with regard to Iraq. Saddam Hussein fell, acting often in contrast with the Gulf countries, but assured that the Sunni domination of the country, relegating the Shiites in positions according to plan, the country has had poor management, encouraged from the incorrect attitude American which, in part encouraged the development of the Islamic state. Right now for the US defeat of the caliphate it is one of the most urgent objectives. Washington, which has always opposed such a division of the country, had to admit, though not officially, that hold together a state where Shiites and Sunnis are political opponents and, at best, can only stand each, has a high cost and determines the situation of serious instability, including the greater its been the advanced Islamic state. In the drawing of Obama has outlined a zone of influence divided between Shiites and Sunnis, yet to determine in what way this should be done if a division of the Iraqi state or a federation, allowing greater autonomy to the two parties, and also to Kurds, inserted in the plant institutional status of Iraq still united. In reality this division actually exists already and is now an established fact, thanks to the land of the Iranians, decisive to stop the advance of the caliphate. Tehran, as lead nation of the Shiites, moved in defense of the people of Iraq eastern Europe, which, for the most part, follow this branch of Islam. The Iranians, however, thought to apply the same method to the minority Houti, also Shiite, which is the rebellion in Yemen. All this happens in the distance duel between Saudi Arabia and the Sunni states and Iran itself, as representative of the Shiites, who also trains large in Syria. The clear intention of Obama and lead a sort of role as arbitrator between the two sides, with the final aim of arriving at a mutual recognition, in order to promote peaceful coexistence. It is not an easy task, the US President has to keep a kind of equidistance but not too obvious: to do what needs to set limits net, such as Yemen, where a party can not intrude in the strongest terms. One aspect is very difficult to convince the Saudis that the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, both as a deterrent to nuclear proliferation, contrary to the claims of the Gulf monarchies, and also from Israel, who believe that Iran can reach the construction of the atomic bomb through civilian nuclear technology. Obama, in this case, certainly chose the lesser evil, negotiating a system of checks, which should prevent Iran to join the club of nuclear powers. One of the most compelling is the substantial presence of equipment and actual American military bases in the Persian Gulf, ready to intervene quickly, in case there is the remote possibility of an Iranian attack. It must be specified, however, that Obama has rejected the hypothesis of the creation of a kind of Atlantic Alliance with the Gulf countries, believing sufficient insurance and deployment in this war zone. Actually build a military alliance would be structured as a provocation to Iran and therefore a move to be avoided for the delicate balancing system designed to allow the new regional balance. For the White House, this choice is not a design meditated but it is a must see if it was still impossible to contain Iran with sanctions and isolation, as this would increase too much resentment in Tehran and would force the Iranians to take action to force to unlock a situation too long suffered, the US has thought of a gradual approach, that whizzing through the progressive reduction of the penalties and the granting of civil nuclear power. Certainly it was a choice that brought havoc in the Sunni camp, but at the same time, it served to prevent the Gulf monarchies to embark upon actions against Iran. The work of Obama, in this sense, is just beginning and will soon collide with an even bigger problem in the Iraqi issue and the same war against the Islamic state: the management of Syria. In fact, in Iraq, the caliphate is, now, a danger to themselves were Sunnis, who have helped to create it, but Syria has become a strategic objective; Sunnis is evading Iranian influence, Iran is, on the contrary, to keep Assad in command not to lose a strategically important ally. If before, to Washington, Assad was considered an enemy, currently is considered instrumental to the defeat of the caliphate, that in Syria, has its bases more efficient. Damascus, therefore, play a game crucial to the balance of the Middle East and as Obama began a search for peace between Sunnis and Shiites, with mutual recognition. If it comes to accomplish this, combined with the final application of the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, perhaps you can say that Obama will have deserved the Nobel Prize that he was given too early.