Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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martedì 26 maggio 2015
South Korea, Japan and the US seek a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem
The
attempt to be able to agree on a process for the denuclearization of
North Korea, is the focus of a meeting between representatives of South
Korea, Japan and the United States. The goal is to resume effective a program capable of facing the nuclear threat represented by Pyongyang. Recently,
North Korea have developed a technology to miniaturize nuclear weapons
and would increase the ability to equip its submarines of such
armaments. The
evolution increasingly unpredictable North Korean scenario of the
country, care about its neighbors and the US, which have not yet been
able to stop the ability to develop nuclear weapons to the regime in
Pyongyang. The
state of North Korea, despite a strict control of the state apparatus,
it is far from stable, due to the volatility of the dictator Kim
Jong-un, often committed, according to the rare news that they can
filter, in fierce repression of personality policies judged very faithful. The
economic situation more severe Pyongyang pose a danger to world peace,
as could be the reason to put under blackmail the international
community by the dictatorship in the country. Despite
the isolation, partly wanted by the regime and partly built by most of
the world states and practiced through sanctions, the regime has
maintained its policy of not possessing a nuclear arsenal, to be used as
a weapon of international pressure. In
fact an atomic attack, however, repeatedly threatened by Pyongyang,
even also against the United States, it appears a distant prospect, but
its neighbors and especially the neighboring South Korea, do not live in
a serene presence of such a danger in the hands a dictatorship, which, at times, appears anything but clear. The
problem affects, in a forced, even China and Russia, which would like
to engage in these negotiations to develop a methodology able to
convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arsenal. Especially China's involvement is seen as essential, given the privileged relations that Beijing has with North Korea. China
is, in practice, the only country formally allied with the North
Koreans, even though in recent times relations have loosened to the
conduct is not always linear to Kim Jong-un. Nonetheless
China maintains diplomatic channels privileged to enter the dialogue
with Pyongyang, even if previous attempts by Beijing on the subject have
never been successful. According
to South Korean officials are three main instruments to which recourse
to try to persuade North Korea: deterrence, pressure and dialogue. Once
again we will try to provide economic and political incentives to
Pyongyang to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program, but
these tools will still be chosen in a context of great uncertainty for
the attitude that the other party may hold. Fact that reliability can provide the dictatorship in Pyongyang? In the past, such an attitude is apparently available following a tightening of the negotiations, for no apparent reason. These
premises, which are very clear to the negotiators, not predict an easy
relationship, as indeed is widely expected, with Pyongyang. There remains the need to return to the center of the debate, trying to reduce the reason North Korea. The
example of Iran can be taken as a model only in part, Tehran has every
incentive to re-enter the world, both from the political point of view,
as lead nation of the Shiites, know economically, representing a market
potentially very convenient both incoming and outgoing. North
Korea does not have similar ambitions, but to reduce the state of
extreme difficulty of its economy, the effects of which fall, however,
of a people devoid of critical consciousness and literally brainwashed
by the propaganda of the regime. We,
that is on a completely different level and not comparable with any
other country and that makes it particularly difficult to reach the goal
of halting the North Korean nuclear arms race, with all that this will
follow.
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