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martedì 26 maggio 2015

South Korea, Japan and the US seek a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem

The attempt to be able to agree on a process for the denuclearization of North Korea, is the focus of a meeting between representatives of South Korea, Japan and the United States. The goal is to resume effective a program capable of facing the nuclear threat represented by Pyongyang. Recently, North Korea have developed a technology to miniaturize nuclear weapons and would increase the ability to equip its submarines of such armaments. The evolution increasingly unpredictable North Korean scenario of the country, care about its neighbors and the US, which have not yet been able to stop the ability to develop nuclear weapons to the regime in Pyongyang. The state of North Korea, despite a strict control of the state apparatus, it is far from stable, due to the volatility of the dictator Kim Jong-un, often committed, according to the rare news that they can filter, in fierce repression of personality policies judged very faithful. The economic situation more severe Pyongyang pose a danger to world peace, as could be the reason to put under blackmail the international community by the dictatorship in the country. Despite the isolation, partly wanted by the regime and partly built by most of the world states and practiced through sanctions, the regime has maintained its policy of not possessing a nuclear arsenal, to be used as a weapon of international pressure. In fact an atomic attack, however, repeatedly threatened by Pyongyang, even also against the United States, it appears a distant prospect, but its neighbors and especially the neighboring South Korea, do not live in a serene presence of such a danger in the hands a dictatorship, which, at times, appears anything but clear. The problem affects, in a forced, even China and Russia, which would like to engage in these negotiations to develop a methodology able to convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arsenal. Especially China's involvement is seen as essential, given the privileged relations that Beijing has with North Korea. China is, in practice, the only country formally allied with the North Koreans, even though in recent times relations have loosened to the conduct is not always linear to Kim Jong-un. Nonetheless China maintains diplomatic channels privileged to enter the dialogue with Pyongyang, even if previous attempts by Beijing on the subject have never been successful. According to South Korean officials are three main instruments to which recourse to try to persuade North Korea: deterrence, pressure and dialogue. Once again we will try to provide economic and political incentives to Pyongyang to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program, but these tools will still be chosen in a context of great uncertainty for the attitude that the other party may hold. Fact that reliability can provide the dictatorship in Pyongyang? In the past, such an attitude is apparently available following a tightening of the negotiations, for no apparent reason. These premises, which are very clear to the negotiators, not predict an easy relationship, as indeed is widely expected, with Pyongyang. There remains the need to return to the center of the debate, trying to reduce the reason North Korea. The example of Iran can be taken as a model only in part, Tehran has every incentive to re-enter the world, both from the political point of view, as lead nation of the Shiites, know economically, representing a market potentially very convenient both incoming and outgoing. North Korea does not have similar ambitions, but to reduce the state of extreme difficulty of its economy, the effects of which fall, however, of a people devoid of critical consciousness and literally brainwashed by the propaganda of the regime. We, that is on a completely different level and not comparable with any other country and that makes it particularly difficult to reach the goal of halting the North Korean nuclear arms race, with all that this will follow.

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