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lunedì 4 maggio 2015

Yemen fighting intensifies

The ongoing war in Yemen was an increase of the fighting; unfortunately that it announced recently by the Saudis, about the end of the bombing has been repeatedly denied and the last recorded cases the use of cluster bombs, as denounced by the organization Human Rights Human Rights Watch. These bombs are included in the prohibition of the use in some treaties for their danger, especially for the civilian population, but Saudi Arabia and Yemen have not signed these agreements. The decision to use this type of bombs only means that the Saudi monarchy has decided to raise the level of confrontation, perhaps to hasten the end. It is not excluded that this decision is in connection with the attacks that the rebels Huthi, have tried to bring to the Saudi border. The attack was carried out near the southern border of Saudi Arabia, and would provoke a harsh response of the Saudi forces, which would have caused several casualties among the rebel forces. The move of the Huthi may have been dictated by an attempt to ease the military pressure and at the same time provide an adequate response to the war alliance Sunni. However the strength of the Huthi appears well short of what fielded by Saudi Arabia and its allies, despite the rebels have still controlled part of the territory of Yemen, including the capital of the country. Meanwhile, the Sunni coalition military would begin simultaneously to air strikes, a land action, with military personnel did arrive by sea in Aden, to attack the positions of the Shiites in the area. This quota may also be part of Saudi special forces, intending to recover positions adverse to the militias, probably in less time, to be able to conclude a conflict which have budget estimates to conclude first. The intensifying efforts of the Saudis and the large deployment of forces, reported that the campaign against the Huthi, despite what is put in the field, is not at all easy. The resistance of Shiite rebels, despite the great losses and the lack of ability to respond with air power, the attacks from the sky, provides a perception of great difficulty by the Sunni coalition. Saudi, especially, at this time it needs to be concluded as soon as possible the country of Yemen, for two main reasons. The first is to prevent the United States have ruled against how this conflict, especially its impact on the civilian population; the second is to prevent Iran to undertake an action of support for Huthi, in an official manner. This second option is the most feared by diplomats from around the world, it could lead to a direct confrontation between the two major Muslim countries, bishops of the two branches into which is divided the religion of Mohammed. For the time Tehran has not made any official step, although it is certain that the monitoring of the situation is ongoing. Iran, however, is subject to two opposing forces about to officially support the rebels Huthi. While the Shia movements are more extreme for an unconditional support to the insurgents Yemeni, making it a matter of religious belonging and pride, on the other hand, the approaching date of the final signature on the Treaty of the Iranian nuclear issue requires the state a forced prudence. A solution, although difficult to implement, would be to divide into two zones Yemen, one for the Shia and one for the Sunnis; This solution should be carried out by the United Nations and provisionally, without, that is, give the division of the country a final arrangement, but temporary, to allow peace negotiations. This device, however, could be a setback for the Sunnis that point to total control of the country; this motivation would help explain the increased intensity of military strikes, to arrive at a final conquest of Yemen to be returned to the government in exile in Riyadh. This scenario, which is the most likely, Iran imposes an action unofficial support for Huthi, who explain completely how their stamina. Probably Tehran, as well as providing weapons and equipment, employs its workforce in the field, following the example of what was done in Syria and Iraq. The situation is so fact apparently blocked, despite the military effort Sunni and looks set to go ahead, with serious problems for civilians. One of Washington's diplomatic action in his capacity as an ally of the Saudis and the protagonist of the country to the negotiating table on the nuclear Iran could lead the two sides to open negotiations for a ceasefire and a subsequent accommodation of the Yemeni issue.

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