Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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venerdì 5 giugno 2015
Saudi Arabia and Israel possible allies in the near future
Saudi
Arabia and Israel are two nations divided by the Palestinian issue and
they do not maintain formal diplomatic relations, but from the start of
the Arab spring, which led to the destabilization of the region and,
above all, to coincide with the end of isolation of the country Iran, common
enemy for geopolitical and religious differences of views and by the
acquisition of nuclear technology, which is a common source of concern,
have gradually approached, first indirectly and now with secret
meetings. Both
countries currently have every incentive not to make public meetings,
the Palestinian issue is still the focus of the feelings of the Arab
population, who consider the land of Israel the common enemy, for which a
report made public, between Tel Aviv and
Riyadh, could affect, in terms of perception, the leading role of the
Sunni countries that Saudi Arabia seeks, always more, to cover. But the needs converged in foreign policy are approaching more and more the two countries. The
common problem is constituted by the main Iranian issue: the weight
growing influence in the region Tehran is not appreciated equally by the
two states and a possible alliance, especially in military optics, may
be closer than predictable. Israel
has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iranian sites, depriving the country
of the technology that can enable you to get the nuclear bomb, while
Saudi Arabia, Iran opposed the historic rivalry religious, it came to
plan the purchase of a nuclear device ready by Pakistan, to anticipate Tehran, in view of a possible balance of terror in Islamic version. Another
aspect common to the two countries: the current strained relationship
with the US, which account for both the major ally. The
intention of Obama to bring Iran out of isolation, to regulate its
access to nuclear technology, even for civilian purposes, has produced a
progressive distancing by the American administration from Riyadh and
Tel Aviv, which produced positions very
critical of Washington, leading to scenarios of tension difficult to
manage in conjunction with the emergence of the issue of the Islamic
state. The
need determined by removal from the United States has created the need
to develop a sort of secret diplomacy, which could pave the way for an
official collaboration; it
is currently not possible for the differences accumulated over the
years, but that the common needs could enhance and accelerate even in
times, after all short. In
this context the definition of the Palestinian issue, brought to the
forefront of the political agenda Israel is the greatest obstacle,
resolved that the collaboration between the two countries would be ready
to take the form of an official manner. It
may well explain, for reasons of international order, but not the
world, but serves the regional structure, the sudden change of position
of Benjamin Netanyahu, who during the election campaign discarded the
two-state solution, and then resubmit it once elected. The
creation of the State of Palestine, could bring down several rulings
from Arab countries to Israel and open to alliances, also accepted by
the Sunni civil society, in an anti Iran. A
further aspect not to be overlooked, is the tune that combines Tel Aviv
and Riyadh aversion movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the
proximity to the Egyptian military government. Finally
on the Syrian issue, Netanyahu has never hidden that cohabitation with
tacit Assad guaranteed Israel a degree of calm on the border of the two
countries, however, the possible elimination of the country Syrian
movement Hezbollah and the leakage of Damascus orbit of Iranian
influence, also
in favor of a moderate Sunni government, as supported by Saudi Arabia,
is a further convergence is not just for a positive development of
relations between the two countries.
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