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venerdì 5 giugno 2015

Saudi Arabia and Israel possible allies in the near future

Saudi Arabia and Israel are two nations divided by the Palestinian issue and they do not maintain formal diplomatic relations, but from the start of the Arab spring, which led to the destabilization of the region and, above all, to coincide with the end of isolation of the country Iran, common enemy for geopolitical and religious differences of views and by the acquisition of nuclear technology, which is a common source of concern, have gradually approached, first indirectly and now with secret meetings. Both countries currently have every incentive not to make public meetings, the Palestinian issue is still the focus of the feelings of the Arab population, who consider the land of Israel the common enemy, for which a report made public, between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, could affect, in terms of perception, the leading role of the Sunni countries that Saudi Arabia seeks, always more, to cover. But the needs converged in foreign policy are approaching more and more the two countries. The common problem is constituted by the main Iranian issue: the weight growing influence in the region Tehran is not appreciated equally by the two states and a possible alliance, especially in military optics, may be closer than predictable. Israel has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iranian sites, depriving the country of the technology that can enable you to get the nuclear bomb, while Saudi Arabia, Iran opposed the historic rivalry religious, it came to plan the purchase of a nuclear device ready by Pakistan, to anticipate Tehran, in view of a possible balance of terror in Islamic version. Another aspect common to the two countries: the current strained relationship with the US, which account for both the major ally. The intention of Obama to bring Iran out of isolation, to regulate its access to nuclear technology, even for civilian purposes, has produced a progressive distancing by the American administration from Riyadh and Tel Aviv, which produced positions very critical of Washington, leading to scenarios of tension difficult to manage in conjunction with the emergence of the issue of the Islamic state. The need determined by removal from the United States has created the need to develop a sort of secret diplomacy, which could pave the way for an official collaboration; it is currently not possible for the differences accumulated over the years, but that the common needs could enhance and accelerate even in times, after all short. In this context the definition of the Palestinian issue, brought to the forefront of the political agenda Israel is the greatest obstacle, resolved that the collaboration between the two countries would be ready to take the form of an official manner. It may well explain, for reasons of international order, but not the world, but serves the regional structure, the sudden change of position of Benjamin Netanyahu, who during the election campaign discarded the two-state solution, and then resubmit it once elected. The creation of the State of Palestine, could bring down several rulings from Arab countries to Israel and open to alliances, also accepted by the Sunni civil society, in an anti Iran. A further aspect not to be overlooked, is the tune that combines Tel Aviv and Riyadh aversion movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the proximity to the Egyptian military government. Finally on the Syrian issue, Netanyahu has never hidden that cohabitation with tacit Assad guaranteed Israel a degree of calm on the border of the two countries, however, the possible elimination of the country Syrian movement Hezbollah and the leakage of Damascus orbit of Iranian influence, also in favor of a moderate Sunni government, as supported by Saudi Arabia, is a further convergence is not just for a positive development of relations between the two countries.

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