Greece's new risk of failure

While the government greek is laboriously making the path of reform, the third bailout of the Hellenic country should start within thirty days. For funding but there are concrete problems, the most important is just who will be the lenders. Everything is related to the problem of problems: the debt greek; without resolving this issue, despite the agreement, Greece is likely to be back in the uncertain conditions that were present before the signing, with the result to affect the balance, however, very uncertain, the country and bring it back to risk failure. The opinion of economists is unanimous, if Greece is not granted a way to ease the burden of debt incurred to date and interest, will be mathematically impossible to trigger the process of growth necessary to make up the gross domestic product. What would be important is to try to reduce the ratio of debt to gross domestic product, which is set to exceed 200 percent in the two years to come. To agree with the students of economics, which are not only Greeks but of the whole world, there are two important players: the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. The attitude of these two subjects is relatively more benevolent towards Greece, conversely, the European Union, led by Germany, which is of the same opinion, interprets the need to Athens in a totally negative. The matter is that according to analysts of the International Monetary Fund, so that Athens has benefits to rescue plans, must have for about thirty years, the suspension of payment of debts, including those not yet delivered, which means the clear unsustainability of debt greek. This admission of the International Monetary Fund can be interpreted in two ways, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The first is, of course, the acknowledgment of a situation that does not seem reversible and requires a completely different approach from all those carried out until now, the second is that you want to highlight the inability of the International Monetary Fund participate in the financial contribution of the new aid. In fact, if a country is insolvent, as is the case of Athens, the IMF can not lend; in reality this rule has already been violated in the first bailout, that of 2010; but now this situation will repeat itself. Basically without a cut debt greek the International Monetary Fund will remain only a spectator of the evolution of the Greek situation, without providing any input. The European Union, however, referring to the Treaty of Lisbon, which prevents the acceding countries to take at their own expense debts of other nations. Substantially the greek debt can not be reduced, certainly you can lengthen the maturities or studying other instruments, but the substance remains that the debt situation is not compressible. This leads to a deadlock situation: without debt relief the IMF is adamant, but from the opposite side, the European Union is not prepared to reduce the debt of Greece. The total loan that Athens must now fund amounts to 86 billion Euros, of which 20 should be provided by the International Monetary Fund, share, at the time, is definitely not available. Berlin does not seem willing to move forward in the aid plan without the International Monetary Fund and with these conditions the most likely solution becomes again the exit from the euro zone. The suspicion is that it is natural that Germany, has devised a plan unfeasible, consistent with the will of his finance minister, who has always said in favor of a temporary exit least of Greece from the single currency. Now if this were true the German behavior should be penalized, not only as a moral, but for losses which have gone against the financial markets, to reach a point of no conclusion. These arguments could be made before, without becoming the center of a clash of two completely opposite, that will only lead to further losses in the stock markets around the world. Behind these behaviors there is a lack of absolute seriousness, bending events to its exclusive interests, on the one hand protection from the phenomenon of inflation and dal'altra the will to free resources to enhance growth. All this without taking into account the economic and social impact that these behaviors require, not only for Greece and Europe, but also to the global system of finance.