Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 29 luglio 2015
The peace process between Turkey and the Kurds appears finished
The
interruption of the peace process with the Kurds wanted to Erdogan
threatens to undermine the international relations of Ankara with allies
and neighbors in the Middle East and seriously affect the already
fragile internal stability. If
in public, members of the Alliance support the Turkish policy of
repression in what is called terrorism, in private their feelings are
deeply opposed to the interruption of the peace process. From
the international point of view, the actions in Iraqi territory, are a
clear violation of sovereignty, which has provoked protests from
Baghdad. The
Kurdish region has a substantial autonomy within the institutional and
Iraqi Kurdish fighters were key to prevent the advance of the Islamic
State; also
the deep bonds of the government in Baghdad with Iran, which proved to
be an important ally of the government, are likely to focus on the
actions of Sunni Turkey as directed against an executive of Shiite
matrix. The
question is secondary because it could exacerbate the clash within the
Islamic religion and subvert the delicate balances that support the
fight against the caliphate. The
reasons for Erdogan, to carry out the bombing of the Kurds, who have
been much more intense than those made on behalf the caliphate, are
dictated by factors of opportunities and mere political calculation. Ankara
wants to reduce the political weight resulting from the success of the
Kurds against the Islamic Republic, whose momentum could take the
realization of the state of Kurdistan. Not for nothing Erdogan spoke specifically of prevention to the crime of violation of the rule turkish. The
possibility of the creation of a Kurdish state was not, however, an
argument that would cover the territories of Turkey, Erdogan wants only
to prevent a Kurdish state entity on its borders. From
the point of view, the project to weaken the strength of the Kurdistan
Workers' Party, serves to diminish the emotional impact that was
critical to the success of the pro-Kurdish party, also voted by the
Turks as a symbol of opposition to Erdogan He has prevented the formation of the turkish president obtains an absolute majority. What we suspect is that the rules want to repeat in the near future elections to overturn the last election result. This
possibility would be to help create a scenario where it would be mainly
the large internal instability and where you could configure a flagrant
abuse of democracy in the country, which is already affected by
different attitudes illiberal executive Ankara. Reopen
the internal conflict with the Kurds could also endanger the stability
of neighboring countries, where Kurdish communities are freeing local
governments, to support that, that could become a real war against the
Kurds of Turkey. The
exaggerated nationalism on which the power of Erdogan, would be so used
as an internal tool for gathering around the government, to cover the
diplomatic failures of Turkey, which led to the isolation and almost
setting illiberal, characterized by a growing impression of a confessional, imposed to civil society in Turkey. With
these assumptions, it is logical that an input turkish in Europe is
more and more impossible, and also have normal relations of a
diplomatic, beyond the facade, it is increasingly problematic. It
remains to be seen whether the American venture, to endorse the bombing
of the positions of the Kurdistan Workers Party, will produce some
tangible effect on the war on the Islamic state or will prove to be a
losing move. In this second case, the sovereignty of the caliphate is destined to grow dangerously.
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