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mercoledì 29 luglio 2015

The peace process between Turkey and the Kurds appears finished

The interruption of the peace process with the Kurds wanted to Erdogan threatens to undermine the international relations of Ankara with allies and neighbors in the Middle East and seriously affect the already fragile internal stability. If in public, members of the Alliance support the Turkish policy of repression in what is called terrorism, in private their feelings are deeply opposed to the interruption of the peace process. From the international point of view, the actions in Iraqi territory, are a clear violation of sovereignty, which has provoked protests from Baghdad. The Kurdish region has a substantial autonomy within the institutional and Iraqi Kurdish fighters were key to prevent the advance of the Islamic State; also the deep bonds of the government in Baghdad with Iran, which proved to be an important ally of the government, are likely to focus on the actions of Sunni Turkey as directed against an executive of Shiite matrix. The question is secondary because it could exacerbate the clash within the Islamic religion and subvert the delicate balances that support the fight against the caliphate. The reasons for Erdogan, to carry out the bombing of the Kurds, who have been much more intense than those made on behalf the caliphate, are dictated by factors of opportunities and mere political calculation. Ankara wants to reduce the political weight resulting from the success of the Kurds against the Islamic Republic, whose momentum could take the realization of the state of Kurdistan. Not for nothing Erdogan spoke specifically of prevention to the crime of violation of the rule turkish. The possibility of the creation of a Kurdish state was not, however, an argument that would cover the territories of Turkey, Erdogan wants only to prevent a Kurdish state entity on its borders. From the point of view, the project to weaken the strength of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, serves to diminish the emotional impact that was critical to the success of the pro-Kurdish party, also voted by the Turks as a symbol of opposition to Erdogan He has prevented the formation of the turkish president obtains an absolute majority. What we suspect is that the rules want to repeat in the near future elections to overturn the last election result. This possibility would be to help create a scenario where it would be mainly the large internal instability and where you could configure a flagrant abuse of democracy in the country, which is already affected by different attitudes illiberal executive Ankara. Reopen the internal conflict with the Kurds could also endanger the stability of neighboring countries, where Kurdish communities are freeing local governments, to support that, that could become a real war against the Kurds of Turkey. The exaggerated nationalism on which the power of Erdogan, would be so used as an internal tool for gathering around the government, to cover the diplomatic failures of Turkey, which led to the isolation and almost setting illiberal, characterized by a growing impression of a confessional, imposed to civil society in Turkey. With these assumptions, it is logical that an input turkish in Europe is more and more impossible, and also have normal relations of a diplomatic, beyond the facade, it is increasingly problematic. It remains to be seen whether the American venture, to endorse the bombing of the positions of the Kurdistan Workers Party, will produce some tangible effect on the war on the Islamic state or will prove to be a losing move. In this second case, the sovereignty of the caliphate is destined to grow dangerously.

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