The possible role of Iran in the Middle East, after the nuclear deal

The agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue is not only important because it prevents Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, but also because it can lead to a range of consequences on the diplomatic able to stabilize a large part of the world, currently crossed by wars and instability. To concretize this hypothesis, which is certainly not in the short term, but it can not be even a possibility of long-term, it is necessary that Iran's position as a political player in the region to be reconsidered and accepted even by his opponents, in the name of a longer lasting regional stability. The starting point is to establish cooperation between Tehran and Washington in foreign policy, it is an ambitious scenario, but that the objectives of both actors could support. The greatest difficulty is to overcome the deep disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a traditional US ally, which are based on religious differences because of the rivalry between the two main currents of Islam, of which the two countries are the more representatives. This rivalry is one of the causes of the affirmation of the Islamic state, which has emerged from Syria and Iraq, just taking advantage of the rivalry between Sunnis and Shiites, behind which there were maneuvers of Saudi Arabia and Iran. The most urgent issue is to find a solution to the civil war in Syria, which is the weakest point of all the current Middle East issue. The final outcome of this conflict will have to consider many variables, which are Russia, the Sunni countries and, finally, Iran. The goal of Tehran has until now to keep Assad in power, the same is true for Russia, keen to maintain the only base in the Mediterranean at its disposal. Instead the Sunni countries, with Riyadh in the head, hoped to escape to Iran and then to the Shiites control of an area so strategic. The key to look for a conclusion of the Syrian conflict can be a collaboration between Iran and the United States, considering that Tehran is the only actor that can influence Assad and find an honorable way for his replacement in power. Certainly you will find an honorable solution for all parties involved, but especially Tehran will have a different attitude towards the various Shiite militias that finances, to establish a relationship, even a minimum with the Saudis. This is necessary for the defeat of the Islamic state, which now represents the major international danger, having regard to its area of ​​action that extends from Syria, Iraq, Nigeria and the southern coast of the Mediterranean. One of the discriminant, which arouse greater suspicion towards the country of Iran, was the aggressive policy aimed at fomenting the Shiites against Sunnis. But the presence of the caliphate did overcome this issue, at least at the time, becoming a possible opportunity for diplomacy. Iran is in the war against the caliphate with its actual committed to fight on Iraqi territory, next to the Kurdish militia, essential support for Obama, who has been able to deploy the only military aviation. His role is so well defined, but from the point of view of the Sunnis, Tehran must stop the work of destabilization that is taking in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq in the same country, that this role is recognized by the Arab countries. To facilitate this activity of US mediation is essential and even encouraged by the contacts, that the nuclear deal could develop on both sides. Even relatively stabilize Afghanistan the Iranian role can be decisive: Iran shares with the Afghan village several kilometers from the border and the political action of Tehran has been to finance some of the Taliban militias who refuse to sit at the negotiating table with the government in Kabul. A conviction of Tehran could become so decisive and would constitute a further element of the ability to interpret the role of regional power that Iran craves. If these intentions are certainly present in the will of Obama, precisely because they are responsive to his doctrine of limited military intervention in crisis areas in favor of a more diplomatic engagement, this action will involve not only Iran, but in a convincing Israel and the Sunni states, first and foremost Saudi Arabia, but also Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. A considerable effort, but that could open new scenarios for peace in the world; everything will depend, in the first instance, by the attitude that Iran will want to keep and which will be critical to credit it as reliable to Sunni countries, to become an enemy to party.