Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 6 agosto 2015
For Obama, and the US, it is essential to the ratification of the Treaty on Nuclear Iran
Reached an agreement with Iran to the nuclear issue, is now the way of ratification of the Treaty to worry about Obama. The
President of the United States must deal with the two houses of
Congress, where the majority is in favor of the Republican Party firmly
opposed to what has been achieved in Vienna, because it fears a
strengthening of Iran as a regional power and as new nuclear power . In
fact, according to Obama, the treaty specifically aimed at averting
this second hypothesis for at least ten years, thanks to the controls
provided and signed by Tehran. Apart
from the mistrust and ideological influence of the Israeli state on
House Republicans, the terms of the Treaty actually appear a guarantee
in the short term to prevent nuclear proliferation in the country of
Iran, while the long term, trying to encourage greater openness to Iran world, to promote a political change in a less conservative, which can no longer be a danger in ten years. The
goal is, that is, to have a period of time long enough to allow a
different view to the Iranian people and its rulers, when Tehran may, if
he decides to do, become a nuclear power. Postponing
this time, it means do not allow it now, with the influence still too
strong conservatives and religious at the expense of smaller scope of
the progressives. The
reasoning is too linear to be contradicted, for reasons that are
practical and not of principle or political party, because the sanctions
are envisaged certainly effective if Tehran were to break the pacts. One
of the reasons for the refusal Republican would be to prevent a victory
of Obama in foreign policy and deprive him of a great success on the
eve of the expiration of his term, a factor which could then be
reflected in the race to the White House, thereby adversely affect the
new Democratic candidate. This
scenario is possible, but it would make a bad return to the political
weight of the United States, reducing, in fact, the international
prestige, easily made up for the new president, of any party will be. The
reduced credibility as a world leader of diplomacy could be a result of
carefully by Congress, with many challenges still open and far from
resolution. Frustrate
a job that lasted years, which can allow, among other things, to break
the isolation of Iran, to get it back into the diplomatic scene, it
would be incorporated in the international world, as a dangerous
self-harm, no sign of a state and not cohesive reliable in the management of international problems; this
could result in a power vacuum difficult to fill because there is an
actor on the world stage in a position to replace the US as the main
power. Obama,
then, is strong these arguments to try to convince, not only the
Republicans, but also those democrats who are not convinced of the
goodness of the agreement. The
American legislative mechanism provides that in case of refusal of
Congress, the president can veto, which, however, can in turn be
rejected if two-thirds of the rooms are voting against the presidential
decision. Obama has a good scope to get the win, but not so clearly and Israeli propaganda is working to make the agreement fail. To
try to reassure Tel Aviv, the White House promised increased aid for
the defense of the country, especially in view of the discussion the
agreement was renewed to support the defense of the country Israel,
which is due to expire. Just
in relation to this theme the Israeli military has already made
specific requests to the Americans, which deal on missile defense and
the exchange of information. With
these issues in play, Tel Aviv will not go too much against the goals
of Obama and the greater part of the Democratic Party, because, for now,
the Republicans do not seem to favorites in the race for the White
House. In any case, within Israel there are opinions favorable to the agreement, which are based directly on the reasons for Obama.
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