Iran and Russia try to resolve the Syrian crisis

Russia and Iran are trying to save Assad and most of Syrian territory, still under his rule. Moscow and Tehran is essential, because of their geopolitical strategy that the Syrian regime remains alive, even under different conditions since the conflict began. Bring the situation in the country before the outbreak of war is impossible, the regular armed Damascus suffer prolonged state of war, international isolation, the continual desertions and opponents increasingly determined. Currently the country is reduced by about 20% of the original territory and the goal of Russia and Iran is to stop this situation at present, to prevent the advance of the enemies of Assad. The concrete proposal is for a division of the country, where the border area with Lebanon, Damascus and the coastal area would remain under that Moscow and Tehran regard the legitimate government, while Aleppo will become a city entrusted to a sort of government decided by the international community and the rest of Syria would remain in the hands of current formations, including the Kurds and the Islamic state. This solution might have the advantage of pacifying good part of the country, although it seems unlikely that the secular forces, strongly opposed to Assad will accept his time in power, which could trigger a violent crackdown. Then there is the question of the presence of the Islamic state in much of the territory taken away from Damascus, who would receive some sort of legitimacy of the exercise of sovereignty, a highly dangerous because it would allow in fact the caliphate a kind of unofficial legitimacy. This aspect of the solution proposed by the Iranians seems the most dangerous politically and is one that needs to be countered more; Meanwhile, because the Islamic state will not agree to stop at what has been achieved, but, above all, it may exercise political victory as the transfer of territories. Probably this scenario is the result of a chance of Tehran, who hopes to contribute to the reconstruction of Assad's forces to revive a more effective offensive, but the evaluation also contains other risks affecting the Kurds, who would be left portion of territory conquered and always claimed that it would expose the Turkish retaliation, not willing to have on its border a territory administered by what he considers most dangerous opponents of the caliphate. The solution of Russia and Iran met the opposition of Saudi Arabia, which considers Assad a part of the Syrian problem and calls therefore for its removal from Damascus. The proposal of Moscow and Tehran appears to be no definitive solution, but is an attempt to build an interim phase in the conflict, which has as its object the protection of their interests. Russia is essential, as always reiterated until the beginning of the conflict, maintaining the only naval base it has in the Mediterranean, a factor which could also be guaranteed by other parties to the command of Damascus, but that so far has not been guaranteed by any other party. Tehran is at stake, however, is much more important: first Teheran, the strong success of the nuclear talks, diplomatic isolation comes out and tries to conduct firsthand negotiations very difficult, that even if it were to have negative outcomes, the result would still have reported on Iran to play a leading role on the international stage; then there would be the key issue for the regional objectives of the Islamic Republic, which considers Syria's Assad an indispensable partner. Tehran probably will present the dictator of Damascus as an essential part of any peace negotiations, to assure a more institutional role. The request of the territory to be reserved to Assad also appears clearly oversized for the current potential of what remains of the regime: it is possible that the real intention of Iran is able to keep an even smaller portion coincides with that which actually manages to Assad preside. In this scenario it implied the division of Syria, an eventuality that could find favor the United States, as an essential condition if it included the cancellation of the Islamic state from the country Syrian. This could open up a scenario where the caliphate could be replaced by forces of matrix Sunni but very moderate, option acceptable to the Saudis. The Kurdish problem remains, for the implication of Turkey clearly opposed. Kurds currently collaborating with the US, Iran and unofficially, also with Assad, with whom there is an ongoing non-aggression pact convenient to both. Also they enjoy considerable administrative autonomy, which would allow it to pass easily to the exercise of their sovereignty. The Kurds have played a vital role against the Islamic state and their administrative entity could provide a guarantee for the future, though, once it resolved the issue of the Islamic state, should the problem recur extremism. What is needed, then at this stage, it is a commitment of the White House to convince the Turks that a possible Kurdish state, although positioned on the outskirts of Ankara, was a strategic military-style indispensable for US policy. As can be seen the scenario is still full of variables not easily solved, but the activities of Iran, which does not seem possible to have been coordinated so unofficially with the United States, becomes a factor that can be decisive in resolving the Syrian crisis and, that, at the same time, allows the opening of parallel dialogues between rival states, such as Russia and the US itself and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran.