Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 3 agosto 2015
The US will defend with air power the newly formed Syrian army
The
United States intends to use its air force to defend the new armed
group which will operate in Syria, both against the army of Assad, and
against the Islamic state. The
new line, which groups, militias military secular orientation, will be
the force on the ground on which the US count to rely. The
components of this military training, identify the main enemy in the
dictator of Damascus, while Washington, at least at this stage, are to
be used mostly against the soldiers of the Caliphate, to limit the
expansion of the fundamentalists in Syria and achieve the gradual
reconquest of the territory Syrian; only exceeded this stage you can think about the direct confrontation with Assad. The
White House has come up with an action plan that did not include
military action against both the objectives simultaneously, judging this
commitment too burdensome for the composition of the new force and
identifying as a priority the need to impose tough losses to the
caliphate. It
remains to be seen whether the motivation of Syrian fighters, mostly
hostile to Assad, will represent a boost enough to follow the US
priority. This question could pose serious questions on the effectiveness of the strategy that the US has prepared; because the regime in Damascus could benefit from this new setting and keep the territory at least until now maintained. This
would mean, by implication, a proposed division of Syria, where Assad
could still play a role, albeit with limited capacity. This
hypothesis does not seem far-fetched, because the US must consider the
needs of Iranian and also the Russian, who judge the presence of Assad a
sort of guarantee for their objectives; especially
you can not ask Tehran to give up to have some influence in the region,
after an agreement on nuclear cooperation and the unofficial, but
necessary, against the armies of the Islamic state. If
this analysis has some element of truth, the Syrian fighters, trained
by the forces of the Pentagon, should have accepted a perspective that
reduces their main goal: to rid Syria of Assad, as a result of seeing
the Syrian country no longer united
but divided into administrative units, one of which could remain in the
hands of the dictator, which is their main enemy. It
must be specified, however, that the American strategy, it appears, at
the time the most logical, because without the elimination of the
Islamic State from Syria the war situation of the country can not be
stopped. Assad
for what constitutes aid, which can be defined as indirect, but which
helps to enable him to gain valuable time, in a situation where its
armed forces accuse a strong and serious crisis of military type. The
Syrian army, in fact, suffered the biggest difficulties right up
against the constant search of the Islamic state and a greater US
commitment should ease the pressure of the Caliphate of Damascus. The
protection provided that the US air force will ensure the new military
training, is also provided against any hostile acts by men Assad: this
may cause a confrontation between the forces of Damascus and the Air
Force in Washington, however, according to various forecasts, Assad will be wary of cause, even a possible accident, which could lead to such a comparison. The
proximity of the Turkish air base, granted by Ankara to the United
States, will be a decisive factor for the incisiveness of the importance
of the weapon American air strike in a manner that will close the
positions of the Islamic state and allow the new force easier Advanced on the ground. It remains to be seen whether the caliphate will be sent outside the borders of Syria, what will happen at that point. The
most likely option would be a cease-fire, to allow diplomacy to agree
on a different structure of the country, though with Assad or some other
person acceptable to Tehran is still impossible to predict.
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