Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 3 agosto 2015

The US will defend with air power the newly formed Syrian army

The United States intends to use its air force to defend the new armed group which will operate in Syria, both against the army of Assad, and against the Islamic state. The new line, which groups, militias military secular orientation, will be the force on the ground on which the US count to rely. The components of this military training, identify the main enemy in the dictator of Damascus, while Washington, at least at this stage, are to be used mostly against the soldiers of the Caliphate, to limit the expansion of the fundamentalists in Syria and achieve the gradual reconquest of the territory Syrian; only exceeded this stage you can think about the direct confrontation with Assad. The White House has come up with an action plan that did not include military action against both the objectives simultaneously, judging this commitment too burdensome for the composition of the new force and identifying as a priority the need to impose tough losses to the caliphate. It remains to be seen whether the motivation of Syrian fighters, mostly hostile to Assad, will represent a boost enough to follow the US priority. This question could pose serious questions on the effectiveness of the strategy that the US has prepared; because the regime in Damascus could benefit from this new setting and keep the territory at least until now maintained. This would mean, by implication, a proposed division of Syria, where Assad could still play a role, albeit with limited capacity. This hypothesis does not seem far-fetched, because the US must consider the needs of Iranian and also the Russian, who judge the presence of Assad a sort of guarantee for their objectives; especially you can not ask Tehran to give up to have some influence in the region, after an agreement on nuclear cooperation and the unofficial, but necessary, against the armies of the Islamic state. If this analysis has some element of truth, the Syrian fighters, trained by the forces of the Pentagon, should have accepted a perspective that reduces their main goal: to rid Syria of Assad, as a result of seeing the Syrian country no longer united but divided into administrative units, one of which could remain in the hands of the dictator, which is their main enemy. It must be specified, however, that the American strategy, it appears, at the time the most logical, because without the elimination of the Islamic State from Syria the war situation of the country can not be stopped. Assad for what constitutes aid, which can be defined as indirect, but which helps to enable him to gain valuable time, in a situation where its armed forces accuse a strong and serious crisis of military type. The Syrian army, in fact, suffered the biggest difficulties right up against the constant search of the Islamic state and a greater US commitment should ease the pressure of the Caliphate of Damascus. The protection provided that the US air force will ensure the new military training, is also provided against any hostile acts by men Assad: this may cause a confrontation between the forces of Damascus and the Air Force in Washington, however, according to various forecasts, Assad will be wary of cause, even a possible accident, which could lead to such a comparison. The proximity of the Turkish air base, granted by Ankara to the United States, will be a decisive factor for the incisiveness of the importance of the weapon American air strike in a manner that will close the positions of the Islamic state and allow the new force easier Advanced on the ground. It remains to be seen whether the caliphate will be sent outside the borders of Syria, what will happen at that point. The most likely option would be a cease-fire, to allow diplomacy to agree on a different structure of the country, though with Assad or some other person acceptable to Tehran is still impossible to predict.

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