The Italian strategy for Syria

The Italian position in relation to Syria, seems to be starting to take shape. The government of Rome sees a positive collaboration between Russia, Iran and Egypt, who can pursue both goals at the end of the Syrian conflict, combined with that of the defeat of the Islamic state. Italy is directly involved in the definition of the Syrian conflict, to stop the exodus of refugees caused by the war, of which, most went to fuel the human trafficking routes through Libya and from there up on Italian shores. More complex appears the confidence that Roma puts in a collaboration between Moscow, Tehran and Cairo; the calculation seems bold, but has its own logic which is expressed on several levels. The first is to create a kind of balance in the forces that can handle the future of Syria, in fact, on the one hand, if Russia and Iran are aimed at maintaining the status quo, that is, the presence of Assad in power, even in a muted than the situation prior to the conflict, Egypt is a Sunni power, which could balance the expectations of opponents of the despot of Damascus, also the Egyptian military regime offers adequate security against Islamic extremism that governs the caliphate, having shown great aversion to movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, much more moderate Islamic state. Cairo is not even suspected of having funded the fundamentalist forces, as with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and for all these reasons it is therefore considered by Rome as a reliable partner, both in the fight against terrorism, in the resolution of the Syrian issue. More difficult to explain the approach to Moscow, despite even Washington has acknowledged that Russia can play a key role against the presence of the Islamic state in Syria. The US attitude is still much doubt about the true intentions of Putin, who would try to remove the issue from the attention the Ukrainian world with its commitment Syrian; However, it is indisputable that a deployment Russian directly in the field could mean a significant retreat of the forces of the caliphate, after which the US has virtually failed with plans of training and arming of the secular opponents, which have proved unfit for combat and numerical entity poor . Found that the defense of the territory is crucial, as in the wars of the last century, the need for quotas ground in aid to the Kurds, can be ensured by toupee choices of Moscow, from actual Iranian and Egyptian soldiers. On this point, Italy prefers not to express opinions directly, having based its action to a direction essentially diplomatic, but remains implicit, that the approval to the proposed solution can not exclude the use of force in fighting for land, which, when it happens, it will represent a development of the conflict in a manner defined in the international sense. A further point of analysis of the trend Italian regards the economic aspect that contributes to favor this solution. Rome penalties in Moscow meant a significant reduction in its exports and groped to find a mode which can be useful to the US, to take back Russia in the international arena is the double benefit of an economic return and the achievement of a position considerably from the diplomatic point of view, also with a view of the ambition of Rome to get a seat in the Provisional UN goal to be achieved through a greater commitment to peacekeeping forces engaged in the hot spots of the planet. Many economic interests are very important in relations with Iran and Egypt. These are two states that have similar objectives, with regard to access to the diplomatic scene, since the states governed by undemocratic regimes, who need to break the isolation. The current phase of history, dominated by the threat of Sunni terrorism, can promote the contribution that these two nations can give against the caliphate, that is the most dangerous organization on the scene, if properly presented by a member of the international forum, such as 'Italy, above all suspicion of seeking a role as a major player; indeed, the fact of being an average power can promote the role that Rome wants to be. Certainly in this case the economic aspect is secondary connected, the Italian presence in the two countries is expected to grow exponentially and economic ties can promote those diplomats in order to consolidate its position as one of Italian party in the role of mediator between these countries and the major powers. Maybe it will be more complicated to play this strategy within the Atlantic Alliance, where the American vision is the main one and is still cautious towards Russia and Iran and maintains many reservations towards the Egyptian regime, despite its ties with Cairo are remained strong. Rome will assure Washington that his behavior will not be in conflict with the intentions of the White House, but will have to credit its position as facilitator of potential overruns contrasts with the Kremlin, which is the major obstacle in resolving the Syrian crisis to a scenario without Assad.