The unknowns of the elections in Turkey

The upcoming Turkish elections, to be held on November 1 next, will determine the future of the country, above all in the infield and, consequently, in the attitude that Ankara will keep the international scene. The current situation is of great uncertainty, the state constitutional turkish balances are altered and the rules of coexistence appear distorted, in a crescendo of terror and violence, which seems practical to condition the elections. The main protagonist and responsible for this state of affairs appears President Erdogan, increasingly oriented towards re-establishing what was the influence of the Ottoman Empire, to foreign countries, through a heavy conditioning of the internal life of the country, conducted on a road increasingly characterized by the denial of civil rights and the heavy conditioning of the religious element in the social life. Yet, until its relatively recent transformation in the sense authoritarian model turkish was indicated by the West, as an example to be applied to the political transformation of the Arab countries: a way to put together the rules of democracy, with a moderate religious presence. In addition the big problem turkish, linked to Kurdish terrorism, seems poised for a negotiated settlement between the two parties in a peaceful manner, in order to put an end to the internal conflict with a number of concessions in the sense autonomist, although always within the perimeter turkish state for the Kurds. These processes should have guaranteed entry into the European Union, where Turkey was the first Muslim member. The refusal to Brussels, however, based on objective facts, such as lack of insurance of the full enjoyment of civil and political rights, a factor that has been a stumbling block in the end, the government has created a turkish resentment, that instead of trying to adapt the standards required by the European Union, has led the country towards ambitions now outside the current historical moment, like the one that I will exercise an influence on the countries that were part of the Ottoman Empire and before attempting to become a spiritual guide for the countries emerging from the Arab Spring, of the legality of the invasion in the political Islamist movements increasingly moderate. If, at the beginning this project could be supported by an economic situation of strong growth, the contraction of the economy has become an additional factor of aggravation inside. International wrong choices, as to support the Muslim Brotherhood, or to finance the Sunni extremist groups in the Syrian War, from which it would be born Islamic state, have brought the country to international isolation to which was added a deep internal dissent due to compression of the customs of a society basically Western, to which is added a progressive restriction of the rights, especially the freedom of the press and the exercise of political rights. To clear this dissent and standardize the country to his will, Erdogan drew up the plan to convert the parliamentary system into a presidential election, where he had to hold the highest office in the land. The last elections, however, have seen the emergence of a Kurdish party moderate, which was voted by many Turks contrary to the intentions of Erdogan, becoming the main opposition party in the country, managing to overcome the high percentage to be achieved to get into parliament. Turkey is meant the inability to form a new government, but above all, for Erdogan and his education policy does not achieve an absolute majority to become a presidential republic. At this point in turkish country it has implemented a strategy of tension, which reminded one implemented in the 70s of the last century in Italy, to limit the consent of the party moderate Kurdish increasingly represented as an organization affiliated with the Kurdish terrorists. Ankara has revised its policy towards the Kurdish people by intensifying repression and hitting Inspectorate, with the pretext of fighting Islamic state, its military outposts, although they were committed against the caliphate. But what most struck public opinion and the Western world, the attacks were of dubious origin, that have affected the militants peaceful Kurdish party moderate, not the state, indeed ubiquitous, was to carry the work of prevention. Even the attitude of the ministries, in the hands of the formation of Erdogan, after the attacks has been a source of doubts about his behavior. Although there is no evidence for the direct involvement of the government in serious historical facts mistrust Ankara Western allies has increased exponentially, leaving Turkey into a dangerous isolation. The results that come out of the ballot box may, therefore, lead to a situation of split in the country, which is increasingly divided. The fear that a further failure to achieve an absolute majority may bring the leadership to take decisions in authoritarian sense is real and the possibility that the Kurdish party moderate increases its consensus seems to have ample opportunity to occur. To find a peaceful synthesis requires that Erdogan's party to renounce its intention of presidentialism and face in a peaceful manner the requests that come from the more modern sectors of Turkish society: the young and the intellectual classes, which aim to make the country become a turkish full democracy. The outcome of the elections, probably, determine the need for a dialogue focused on substantial reforms, which should see reduced the influence of religion, the restoration of the rights weakened, complemented by an expansion of individual and collective freedom, as requested, some time ago by 'European Union as essential requirement to enter Europe. But if this seems the most logical route to be followed for an evolution of the country, it is said that Erdogan will not keep his ground exacerbating the direction already taken in this case for Turkey is expected a period of great difficulties where every balance It could jump up to a much more serious scenarios.