Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 28 ottobre 2015
US and Iran closer to a resumption of international relations, in addition to the Treaty on Nuclear
The imminent start of the summit on the war in Syria will present a major innovation at the diplomatic level. Iran's
presence at the negotiating table shows Tehran at the center of a
dispute important after so many years of isolation, interrupted only by
negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. If
on the ground fighting the presence of Tehran was now certified by the
cooperation with the Kurds, Iraqis and, in recent times with the
Russians, it had been always an unofficial commitment, carried forward
with tenacity to defend the positions of the country in Syria and also their religious part, the Shiites. So,
for the first time they sit at the same table representatives of
Washington and Tehran, which, although already come into contact, must
iron out deep differences still present in their relationships. The
quota concerning the will of Iran, which coincides with that of Russia,
to keep Assad in power, a factor that the US would remove Syria from
the future. Around this problem announce the greatest difficulties for the presence at the table of Sunni countries like Egypt and Turkey. For
Moscow the Iranian presence is crucial as the two powers come from a
period of relative isolation and this opportunity allows him to break a
diplomatic encirclement, that prevented, even if not entirely, a real
punch in the pursuit of its projects internationally. A
statement, in part, that can be obtained only with the official
recognition of Assad in the negotiations that will design the future of
Syria, could represent a significant victory for Iran and Russia, can
revive their diplomatic activities on a larger scale. To
achieve this the two countries are working on both the diplomatic,
where the game is objectively more difficult, both on the military, used
as a tool to facilitate the work of international relations. The
actions of Russia are building a solid protection to Assad, hitting
both formations of the Islamic state, the rebels Democrats supported by
the US, while Iran, in agreement with the Iraqi Shiite government and
often alongside Kurdish fighters of ' Iraq, is fighting the Sunni fundamentalists on the ground in Baghdad. The
direct involvement on the ground brings a considerable advantage
compared to the American tactic that, through air strikes, got only
partial success. At
the crucial moment of the negotiations the direct effects of the
commitment will surely weigh on the decisions of the summit. But,
in addition to the contingent facts, concerning the structure of Syria
and the region of the Middle East, it is important to emphasize, as the
participation of Iran to a summit so important, it plays a significance
that goes beyond the appointment. The
central point is the resumption of relations between the US and Iran
and all that this aspect may invest both on the diplomatic scene and on
the inside of the respective states. It
is no secret that many environments, also quite influential in both
countries are rather reluctant to resume a conversation stopped abruptly
several years ago, so as to become the two were the greatest enemies,
establishing a distance abysmal. In
the same environments American politicians, who favored the nuclear
talks, it still harbors great suspicion about the true intentions of
Tehran in the international arena, despite the two countries have also
worked unofficially and often at a distance, against the common enemy of
fundamentalism Sunni. In Iran, there are feelings equally adverse to the US, still often defined, even in official speeches, the Great Satan. Despite
the agreement on the nuclear issue remain so elements of profound
distance between the two countries, which do not help in achieving the
goal of regional stability. Ambitions
to play a role of media power from Iran, so far opposed by Washington,
must be reconsidered from the search for the solution of the Syrian
crisis, to invest a broader spectrum of issues that keep the region in a
constant danger . The
deep religious difference, which has exacerbated tensions between Iran
and Saudi Arabia, to which was added the Turkey, looking for a size of
greater influence on the Arab countries and the presence of the
Palestinian issue, forcing the US to try to break new streets. The
American position is currently the most complicated, because the United
States are subject to a stress from many quarters, which prevents a
unique behavior and agrees to exercise very complicated diplomatic
balancing act, in this scenario, the arrival of the Russian presence,
somewhat cumbersome, It turns out to be an aggravating aspect for the US business. Washington
can not, however, curb the Iranian diplomatic ambitions, but has, in
fact, assist them, to the extent that this is possible, to involve an
actor of considerable political weight, functional to the maintenance of
regional balance. Certainly
Washington must also make efforts to limit to not allow a too invasive
action of Tehran, especially towards the historical allies of the United
States; in
any case it is better to open a direct dialogue, which continue with
underground maneuvers, which, at the present time could lead to very
negative consequences.
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