Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 3 dicembre 2015
Suspected Moscow traffic of petroleum involve many questions
Accusations
of Moscow Prime Minister Erdogan turkish, concerning trafficking of
petroleum authorities in Ankara with the Islamic state and that would be
the basis of funding through which the terrorist organization is
financed, must certainly try. On
the other hand the suspects of aiding Turkey to the caliphate, to
overthrow Assad, were always expressed in the field of the Atlantic
Alliance, to which Ankara is part, but have never been formulated so
clearly. Certainly
the fact that these suspicions have been made so explicit only after
the shooting down of Russian military is a signal the intensification of
relations between the two states, but it shows that, if the facts in
question were already aware of the authorities of the Kremlin, for reasons of political balance, has not been given proper public dimension they deserved. The
fact must be, first put in the context of the deterioration in
relations between Turkey and Russia, already compromises to be on
opposite sides about the fate of the regime in Damascus, and then viewed
as a dangerous development in the economy of the conflict and then in a more general, that the sources of supply of financial Islamic state. In
the first case, if the suspects were to be tried, Turkey would
automatically become a supporter of the Caliphate in an official way,
taking a very uncertain towards the United States and the Atlantic
Alliance. This
possibility could do very comfortable in Moscow to split the Western
allies and force the attitude against Ankara, which is the power closer
geographically and supports the fall of Assad. These
analyzes are very interesting for the exam is very important, of the
current situation, but even more important is the situational frame as a
whole within the global conflict. It
seems clear that a large-scale military occupation of the territory, as
carried out by the Islamic state, requires a considerable financial
effort, enabling investment in weapons, equipment and money to the
recruitment of militiamen. The
estimated Russian Defense Minister on the illegal trafficking of oil
amounts to about two billion dollars a year, this amount of money to be
converted to oil in armaments needs consenting banking channels, which
should not be difficult to identify, the true question is why they did not want to date identify the pathways of money flows that feed the caliphate. Stop
these paths to remove the economic strength to the Islamic state could
be more productive than many bombings, certainly military action would
be necessary, but you might run into a more limited and focused and,
above all, with greater results. If
the amount assumed by the financial Russian Minister is real is not
given to know, but it is undeniable that the caliphate receives
sufficient funding to continue a real war on the Iraqi and Syrian soil
and also to finance acts of international terrorism, so it is intense the
perception that trades oil and the resulting supply chain, which is
likely the main source of supply of cheap Islamic state, has not been
made a proper operation of repression. The
present state of things appears that the powers that oppose the
caliphate Agree operate by military means alone, without achieving
significant successes, rather than alternatives, at least in support of
the option of war. One
hypothesis might be that you prefer not to do it this way because you
may discover aspects that can compromise alliances of strategic
importance, especially for the United States, which in recent times have
been practicing a foreign policy very cautious and careful not to break
their balance . Washington
while affirming and practicing their adversity the Islamic state did
not appear stiff with the states, which, although allies, suspected by
many, and several US analysts have supported the caliphate; in
these powers could be just the banking and financial circuits capable
of ensuring financial coverage for the operation of the caliphate. Seen
in this perspective, the Russian argument, yet to be proven, but based
on suspicions least plausible, could have its specific consistency, able
to overturn the balance in the Western camp and against Assad, becoming
a factor in favor, including the 'else, just the dictator of Damascus; However,
this aspect would become infinitely less important if the evidence were
to become real allies of the United States supported the Islamic state.
Diplomacy of Washington earn a driver's license incompetent, although are a further serious, would be the lesser evil.
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