Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 3 dicembre 2015

Suspected Moscow traffic of petroleum involve many questions

Accusations of Moscow Prime Minister Erdogan turkish, concerning trafficking of petroleum authorities in Ankara with the Islamic state and that would be the basis of funding through which the terrorist organization is financed, must certainly try. On the other hand the suspects of aiding Turkey to the caliphate, to overthrow Assad, were always expressed in the field of the Atlantic Alliance, to which Ankara is part, but have never been formulated so clearly. Certainly the fact that these suspicions have been made so explicit only after the shooting down of Russian military is a signal the intensification of relations between the two states, but it shows that, if the facts in question were already aware of the authorities of the Kremlin, for reasons of political balance, has not been given proper public dimension they deserved. The fact must be, first put in the context of the deterioration in relations between Turkey and Russia, already compromises to be on opposite sides about the fate of the regime in Damascus, and then viewed as a dangerous development in the economy of the conflict and then in a more general, that the sources of supply of financial Islamic state. In the first case, if the suspects were to be tried, Turkey would automatically become a supporter of the Caliphate in an official way, taking a very uncertain towards the United States and the Atlantic Alliance. This possibility could do very comfortable in Moscow to split the Western allies and force the attitude against Ankara, which is the power closer geographically and supports the fall of Assad. These analyzes are very interesting for the exam is very important, of the current situation, but even more important is the situational frame as a whole within the global conflict. It seems clear that a large-scale military occupation of the territory, as carried out by the Islamic state, requires a considerable financial effort, enabling investment in weapons, equipment and money to the recruitment of militiamen. The estimated Russian Defense Minister on the illegal trafficking of oil amounts to about two billion dollars a year, this amount of money to be converted to oil in armaments needs consenting banking channels, which should not be difficult to identify, the true question is why they did not want to date identify the pathways of money flows that feed the caliphate. Stop these paths to remove the economic strength to the Islamic state could be more productive than many bombings, certainly military action would be necessary, but you might run into a more limited and focused and, above all, with greater results. If the amount assumed by the financial Russian Minister is real is not given to know, but it is undeniable that the caliphate receives sufficient funding to continue a real war on the Iraqi and Syrian soil and also to finance acts of international terrorism, so it is intense the perception that trades oil and the resulting supply chain, which is likely the main source of supply of cheap Islamic state, has not been made a proper operation of repression. The present state of things appears that the powers that oppose the caliphate Agree operate by military means alone, without achieving significant successes, rather than alternatives, at least in support of the option of war. One hypothesis might be that you prefer not to do it this way because you may discover aspects that can compromise alliances of strategic importance, especially for the United States, which in recent times have been practicing a foreign policy very cautious and careful not to break their balance . Washington while affirming and practicing their adversity the Islamic state did not appear stiff with the states, which, although allies, suspected by many, and several US analysts have supported the caliphate; in these powers could be just the banking and financial circuits capable of ensuring financial coverage for the operation of the caliphate. Seen in this perspective, the Russian argument, yet to be proven, but based on suspicions least plausible, could have its specific consistency, able to overturn the balance in the Western camp and against Assad, becoming a factor in favor, including the 'else, just the dictator of Damascus; However, this aspect would become infinitely less important if the evidence were to become real allies of the United States supported the Islamic state. Diplomacy of Washington earn a driver's license incompetent, although are a further serious, would be the lesser evil.

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