Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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venerdì 8 gennaio 2016
The Chinese financial instability worsened by the international situation
The
strong global instability, characterized by the Middle East situation
and now the North Korean nuclear threat, made a stunning comeback on the
scene, it becomes a factor of dangerous influence on financial and
economic crisis, when it seemed possible to discern a slight
improvement. China,
at this time, seems to suffer the consequences of major international
issues, which are in addition to an internal situation of great stress
due to the failure to expand the domestic market, which was to be a
dedicated channel where to place the overproduction of goods that are
not adequate
external markets, came to the high availability of liquidity and the
high indebtedness of local authorities and families. This
last point does not seem to have been adequately assessed by the
Beijing authorities, who were hoping, perhaps, to hide, with growth
rates in double digits. The
decline in China's growth, albeit with increasingly high performance
for the Western economies, has highlighted this problem of domestic
debt, which is not to be attributed by name to the state, but is passed
on to local authorities in the country, representing however a factor of
instability overall for the economy overall. The
problem is that China has seen its economy in a kind of perpetual
expansion phase, based on the large availability of labor, which is not
followed, for now, a phase of greater specialization able to raise the
quality level of production ,
able also to raise the fan and so to bring the share of domestic market
sales to values capable of absorbing the excess production. These
problems have little to do with the problems of international politics,
but set the stage for a vulnerability of China's financial system,
which reflects precisely the negative of each variable that appears on
the diplomatic scene. To
counter these emergencies of market disruption, it was not even enough
the big injection of cash that the Beijing authorities have placed in
the internal system to combat excessive rebates and have not been
changed the means of coercion against domestic shareholders, which are were limitations in the sale of securities, to avoid the high volume of sales share. It
was created as an attack on the Chinese currency, the devaluation which
has been explained as victims of speculative attacks, despite the
intention of the Central Bank to maintain the national currency at a
level of reasonable balance. But
what is the actual reasonable level that the Chinese authorities are
able to ensure the currency of China, it seems difficult to quantify; definitely
in Chinese intentions there is a level which allows the desired growth
rates, but at this stage, seems to prevail over the intention to limit
the damage in anticipation of better times. The
perception is that the Chinese economic authorities are given an
operation based on the short term, to avoid contingent damage, able to
undermine the ability of China's financial markets. The
choice is understandable for an economy with high-volume production,
however, it would seem necessary, nal same time, develop tools and
intervention methods more structured, able to go beyond the emergency,
also because of the continuing situation of overproduction of oil, encourages
Chinese competitors, both in the production of low-level, that of the
highest standard, where profit margins are higher and erosion borne by
the Chinese production is greater. However
the problem of the decline in financial markets is not only the
Chinese, from China rather than reflected in all world stock markets,
causing significant volatility in investment, measured in percentage
decreases considerable. As
a whole the global financial market appears unprepared for the onset of
international problems, certainly serious, but not unexpected,
highlighting a worrying lack of ability to create tools for the
prevention and combat these problems by the states and authorities charge,
leaving the market at the mercy of those who are used to speculation
and to exploit precisely these times of great uncertainty.
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