Politica Internazionale

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venerdì 8 gennaio 2016

The Chinese financial instability worsened by the international situation

The strong global instability, characterized by the Middle East situation and now the North Korean nuclear threat, made a stunning comeback on the scene, it becomes a factor of dangerous influence on financial and economic crisis, when it seemed possible to discern a slight improvement. China, at this time, seems to suffer the consequences of major international issues, which are in addition to an internal situation of great stress due to the failure to expand the domestic market, which was to be a dedicated channel where to place the overproduction of goods that are not adequate external markets, came to the high availability of liquidity and the high indebtedness of local authorities and families. This last point does not seem to have been adequately assessed by the Beijing authorities, who were hoping, perhaps, to hide, with growth rates in double digits. The decline in China's growth, albeit with increasingly high performance for the Western economies, has highlighted this problem of domestic debt, which is not to be attributed by name to the state, but is passed on to local authorities in the country, representing however a factor of instability overall for the economy overall. The problem is that China has seen its economy in a kind of perpetual expansion phase, based on the large availability of labor, which is not followed, for now, a phase of greater specialization able to raise the quality level of production , able also to raise the fan and so to bring the share of domestic market sales to values ​​capable of absorbing the excess production. These problems have little to do with the problems of international politics, but set the stage for a vulnerability of China's financial system, which reflects precisely the negative of each variable that appears on the diplomatic scene. To counter these emergencies of market disruption, it was not even enough the big injection of cash that the Beijing authorities have placed in the internal system to combat excessive rebates and have not been changed the means of coercion against domestic shareholders, which are were limitations in the sale of securities, to avoid the high volume of sales share. It was created as an attack on the Chinese currency, the devaluation which has been explained as victims of speculative attacks, despite the intention of the Central Bank to maintain the national currency at a level of reasonable balance. But what is the actual reasonable level that the Chinese authorities are able to ensure the currency of China, it seems difficult to quantify; definitely in Chinese intentions there is a level which allows the desired growth rates, but at this stage, seems to prevail over the intention to limit the damage in anticipation of better times. The perception is that the Chinese economic authorities are given an operation based on the short term, to avoid contingent damage, able to undermine the ability of China's financial markets. The choice is understandable for an economy with high-volume production, however, it would seem necessary, nal same time, develop tools and intervention methods more structured, able to go beyond the emergency, also because of the continuing situation of overproduction of oil, encourages Chinese competitors, both in the production of low-level, that of the highest standard, where profit margins are higher and erosion borne by the Chinese production is greater. However the problem of the decline in financial markets is not only the Chinese, from China rather than reflected in all world stock markets, causing significant volatility in investment, measured in percentage decreases considerable. As a whole the global financial market appears unprepared for the onset of international problems, certainly serious, but not unexpected, highlighting a worrying lack of ability to create tools for the prevention and combat these problems by the states and authorities charge, leaving the market at the mercy of those who are used to speculation and to exploit precisely these times of great uncertainty.

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