The diplomatic crisis in the Middle East worsens the balance of the region

The evolution of the diplomatic crisis between Iran and Saudi widens the allied countries of Riyadh, which, in various ways, are ceasing or easing relations with Tehran. For the moment, the moment of difficulty is exacerbated by peaceful means, but often this is the antechamber of the use of military means. This possibility, however, despite everything, is still far away, even if it comes by force in the range of possibility of development of contrast. The decision to expel Iranian diplomats from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has made to coincide the abandonment of the diplomatic mission in the Iranian capital, as well as flights between the two capitals; these decisions have started the withdrawal of ambassadors from Shiite weigh even by Sudan and Bahrain, and the UAE go to the downgrading of its diplomatic representation, while maintaining the relationship with the country of Iran. The condemnation of the United Nations arrived on time, after the attack the Saudi embassy, ​​for the lack of protection of Tehran of a diplomatic representative of a foreign country, as required by international law. On this point can be leveled much criticism in Riyadh, despite the response of the Iranian police, practiced by several arrests of protesters, it seems unlikely that the political and military structure of Tehran has escaped the control of an event of such magnitude, but It is likely to think that the protest was inspired also by authorities of the nation. Despite the condemnation of Iranian President Rohani, who called unjustifiable assaults to the Saudi embassy, ​​the same Rohani said the anger of the protesters is understandable, because it is directed against a crime perpetrated against Islamic law. The reference to Islamic law is particularly significant because the same justification the Saudis had explained the reasons for the death sentences. The fact remains that, in the face of international law, Iran does not seem to be entirely without responsibility in the embassy attacks and this has forced the United Nations to issue a sentence, which seems, however, more a duty, of neutral nature , in accordance with the role, that a sign in support of the Saudi monarchy. On the other hand the effects of the death sentences, are likely to lead Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries its allies in the awkward position of persons with a desire to alter the balance created by the defeat of the caliphate. Caution that the US is using, trying to maintain a position of equidistance, to encourage the resumption of dialogue, appear to be significant, but it gets the result of a growing distrust of Washington by the Saudis. The silence of Israel is very eloquent: the general framework that has been created is clear that Tel Aviv is virtually opposite Riyadh, with which it shares the concerns about the Iranian nuclear developments and fears of an advanced ' Shiite influence in the Middle East. However the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites seem set to worsen: the episodes against Sunni mosques in Iraq are eloquent in this regard and this can not be conducive to the Islamic state, which was undergoing considerable military setbacks, losing ground because of the action of Sunni militias in Iraq. It may be likely that the decision to raise the level of confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites, a natural consequence of the death sentences Saudi, was a way designed to Riyadh to gain time on how to determine what will follow the eventual defeat of the caliphate. The intention of the Saudis, despite the rupture of diplomatic relations with Iran, is to participate in the negotiations for Syria, with the participation of Tehran, but that does not mean that I will exercise more influence also in the process that will follow the 'settling of Iraq, once defeated the Islamic state. The clear responsibility to have raised the level of confrontation INSIDE tHIS of the two major currents of Islam, could, however, be a weapon aimed at the credibility and reliability of the Saudis, who could see decreased their specific weight at the table negotiations. This will depend on how the US, Russia and Europe will want to judge the actions of Riyadh, in a dimension of pure political and diplomatic opportunities for the new arrangements in the Middle East.