Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 18 gennaio 2016

The World Economic Forum provides for the loss of five million jobs by 2020

A prediction of the World Economic Forum announced that 2020 could register a loss of jobs in the world, estimated at some five million units globally. It is a prediction that takes into account the impact that will cause changes in technology, geared to greater automation of work, even with the use of robotic systems that can replace humans in almost all stages of industrial processes, together to a more and more increasing digitization, which can promote even coverage of control operations and remote control of the work, by moving different tasks by man to computers. The estimate includes an overall loss of seven million jobs, offset by the creation of two million new jobs, however, insufficient to cover all the needs of employment. The increasing use of machinery, supported by technological advances faster and faster, but, at the same time, able to contain the costs of production and development, will affect, most likely, all areas of production and the geographical areas, albeit unevenly. Paradoxically, in the states most backward, without the presence of an adequate industrialization, these effects may be more content, compared to areas of great use in manufacturing, also characterized by the presence of low-cost labor. In the future the cost of labor will affect even more in the machining of low-skill, a trend that is already registered with relocation from countries that have imposed previously for its low labor costs, are able to offer to other wage conditions even more favorable for companies. It is clear that the use of machinery capable of increased automation lowers the cost of training and absences of workers and can offer, especially for machining highly serial, productive performance higher, with a considerable reduction of processing waste. However, even in the production of higher quality the risk of a drastic reduction of jobs appears consistent, if, as seems to be affected will be activities related to areas such as finance, healthcare and energy. The forecast comes at a time when he could materialize the exit from the world economic crisis, which saw the fall in income and consumption, even in the richest countries, with a significant increase in inequality among the wealthier classes and the most poor, which involved, with a descent down the middle class, increasingly compressed towards lower standards. One can not assess the effects that you would have if this prediction were to come true, even in part. First there would be an increase in economic migration from the south to the north of the world, migration, however, they would have little chance of success for an increasing closure of the so-called rich countries, gripped by a profound crisis, capable of unleashing dangerous contrasts that alter the already precarious internal balances. On the other hand with a work force so drastically reduced even the domestic markets of individual countries will only record a compression such consumption, capable of creating significant consequences productions, even those based on automation. The first measure to be taken, both at international and national levels, is to increase the training, in addition to being a prevention against unemployment, it will become a growing number of employees. We need to focus on the specifics of each country and to increase the scientific knowledge, without neglecting the development of cultural, inserted in a context of economic output; It should then be implemented a profound social transformation of the productive with less working hours, which will have to pay a lowering of taxation to have the dual effect of widening the audience of employees and maintain the level of tax revenues of the state; this factor should be given special attention, because the compensation of employees guarantee revenue for safe operation. The most advanced states must also think of incentives for the production and the highly specialized work, to avoid excessive automation, promoting an economy based on production and performance of medium-high level, but accessible to a greater audience so as to justify an increase of sale as to ensure greater employment. The scenario involves a trend that will occur over a short period average, which does not allow long-term planning, but that requires an urgent look at the earliest solutions to avert or at least to limit its effects. Otherwise such a large mass of unemployed could alter the balance and the social and political cohesion in more than one state. Precisely for this reason the solutions lie beyond the borders of individual states or groups of nations, but in the totality of all the global players with sovereignty, to avoid other factors that can endanger world peace.

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