Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 18 gennaio 2016
With the end of sanctions, Iran expects the growth of its economy
With
the end of the sanctions, which remain in force in respect of some
specific personalities and well identified, belonging to the most
fundamentalist, Iran has presented as its own political victory the
nuclear deal, which opens to significant economic opportunities for
Tehran . The
official speeches concern the large capacity of the Iranian people, and
its current leadership, they were able to break through the
encirclement diplomatic and economic, in which the country was plunged,
suffering from a severe financial crisis. In
fact, while recognizing the merits of Tehran, it should be noted the
great work of the international diplomatic community, whose interest,
with some exceptions, was to avoid an escalation of Iran towards nuclear
weapons and, at the same time, avoid the country Shia a dangerous isolation, harmful to international equilibrium in flux. These
reasons have been carefully removed from official speeches, drawn
entirely internal use, to appease, above all, those sectors of Iranian
society, still not convinced of the need to come to terms with what is
considered the historic enemy of the state: the United States . It
is labor minority in quantitative, but very important in terms of their
ability to influence on the equipment managers of a state based on
aspects still very theocratic. The
conservative clergy is still a dominant sector, with considerable
influence on the direction of the country, although the greater part of
the citizens of the state of Iran has an age relatively very low and did
not live, if not in an indirect way, the revolution that led to the change of government from the political to the religious dictatorship. In
determining the success of turning peaceful and more openness of the
government was the more practical need to change a very difficult
economic situation, which had packed the potential of the country,
forcing a decline, which was judged to be the most dangerous, from
the point of view of social and political stability of the nation, to
the will of the most conservative sectors, to maintain a hard line on
the nuclear issue, often seen from this political party as an invasion
of national sovereignty. The
will to be treated, while maintaining firm points that could prejudice
the success of the negotiations, has always had as its purpose to free
the country from sanctions to enter fully into the world system of
globalization. Certainly
the extension of negotiations, resulted following a lengthening of the
time for the lifting of sanctions, which coincided with a drop in crude
oil of historic proportions and certainly not planned. Surely
the calculations in Tehran about the possible revenue from oil sales
will be revised downwards and, besides, can be an additional element of
disruption in relations with Saudi Arabia, since the entry of a new
producer on the market can only have the effect of new declines in oil prices. Despite
this factor the Iranian state expects a sum of foreign investment of
around 30 billion euro, which cause a growth rate for several years,
between the values between six and eight percent, according to US
estimates, while forecasts of Tehran stood on a more prudent five percent. It
remains to solve the concerns of countries historically adverse to
Iran, as Israel and Saudi monarchies, who are on very similar positions,
fearing a disruption of regional balance, coinciding with a solution of
the Syrian crisis and the presence of the Islamic State, increasingly pressing. On
the other hand, this process has already started with the participation
of Iran in the fight against the caliphate and a definitive solution to
both problems can not ignore the presence of Tehran. Western
observers hope is that a better economic situation of Iran, favoring
positions more conciliatory and diplomatic approach to international
problems, a predisposition that might not be enough if Tel Aviv and
Riyadh, will not want to take note of the change occurred in a
responsible way in Iran and were to remain in their attitude of total hostility, refusing any dialogue.
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