Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 18 gennaio 2016

With the end of sanctions, Iran expects the growth of its economy

With the end of the sanctions, which remain in force in respect of some specific personalities and well identified, belonging to the most fundamentalist, Iran has presented as its own political victory the nuclear deal, which opens to significant economic opportunities for Tehran . The official speeches concern the large capacity of the Iranian people, and its current leadership, they were able to break through the encirclement diplomatic and economic, in which the country was plunged, suffering from a severe financial crisis. In fact, while recognizing the merits of Tehran, it should be noted the great work of the international diplomatic community, whose interest, with some exceptions, was to avoid an escalation of Iran towards nuclear weapons and, at the same time, avoid the country Shia a dangerous isolation, harmful to international equilibrium in flux. These reasons have been carefully removed from official speeches, drawn entirely internal use, to appease, above all, those sectors of Iranian society, still not convinced of the need to come to terms with what is considered the historic enemy of the state: the United States . It is labor minority in quantitative, but very important in terms of their ability to influence on the equipment managers of a state based on aspects still very theocratic. The conservative clergy is still a dominant sector, with considerable influence on the direction of the country, although the greater part of the citizens of the state of Iran has an age relatively very low and did not live, if not in an indirect way, the revolution that led to the change of government from the political to the religious dictatorship. In determining the success of turning peaceful and more openness of the government was the more practical need to change a very difficult economic situation, which had packed the potential of the country, forcing a decline, which was judged to be the most dangerous, from the point of view of social and political stability of the nation, to the will of the most conservative sectors, to maintain a hard line on the nuclear issue, often seen from this political party as an invasion of national sovereignty. The will to be treated, while maintaining firm points that could prejudice the success of the negotiations, has always had as its purpose to free the country from sanctions to enter fully into the world system of globalization. Certainly the extension of negotiations, resulted following a lengthening of the time for the lifting of sanctions, which coincided with a drop in crude oil of historic proportions and certainly not planned. Surely the calculations in Tehran about the possible revenue from oil sales will be revised downwards and, besides, can be an additional element of disruption in relations with Saudi Arabia, since the entry of a new producer on the market can only have the effect of new declines in oil prices. Despite this factor the Iranian state expects a sum of foreign investment of around 30 billion euro, which cause a growth rate for several years, between the values ​​between six and eight percent, according to US estimates, while forecasts of Tehran stood on a more prudent five percent. It remains to solve the concerns of countries historically adverse to Iran, as Israel and Saudi monarchies, who are on very similar positions, fearing a disruption of regional balance, coinciding with a solution of the Syrian crisis and the presence of the Islamic State, increasingly pressing. On the other hand, this process has already started with the participation of Iran in the fight against the caliphate and a definitive solution to both problems can not ignore the presence of Tehran. Western observers hope is that a better economic situation of Iran, favoring positions more conciliatory and diplomatic approach to international problems, a predisposition that might not be enough if Tel Aviv and Riyadh, will not want to take note of the change occurred in a responsible way in Iran and were to remain in their attitude of total hostility, refusing any dialogue.

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