The current situation in Libya

Five years after the end of the Gaddafi regime, Libya is not only struggling with the threat of the Islamic state, but for the inhabitants of the difficulties of everyday life are economic. Not that the two are not connected: the two administrations that share the country should build a government of national unity, are still struggling with political differences and, in the meantime, do not exercise government action. The economy is in the hands of the black market that creates inflation, skilled workers from other countries returning to their country, creating problems in various sectors, such as health care and the construction industry is at a standstill for lack of funds. The economic situation could become an extremely destabilizing factor and encourage the presence of the Islamic state. In this scenario the government of Tripoli and Tobruk to struggle to find common ground and keep separate their armed forces, which separate can not fight the caliphate. The presence of Islamic fundamentalists is a real danger for the Libyan country and, consequently, for the Western countries, first of all, those bordering the Mediterranean. The real danger is that the forces of the Islamic State have looted the arsenals of Gaddafi, but not only those containing conventional weapons, but especially those containing chemical and possibly nuclear weapons. Plan an attack with these armaments from the Gulf of Sirte towards the Italian country seems to be a possibility not too remote. On the Western intervention in Libya issue positions are not unique: if the United States has already conducted air raids on the Caliphate forces, they have been able to do from Italian bases, but from the English ones, with technical difficulties related to the supplies in flight no small matter. Italy, which is the country most affected the evolution of the situation in Libya, maintains a position even judged too cautious, but that has its obvious justification. Rome requires, to become personally engaged and then to allow the own bases, a cover of the United Nations or, at least, an agreement with the West, which does not repeat the disastrous management of the period following the fall of Gaddafi. In any case, as the two have difficulty Libyan governments to find a synthesis, the situation is repeated in the western fold, where it seems began the march each on its own; In fact, after the US air operations, it seems that French special forces are on the ground secretly to defend installations companies of France, without any coordination with allies. This situation seems to be the repetition of five years ago when it was the France the most active in the war on Colonel, to the ambition of replacing Italy in energy deals. If then lacked a shared project, based mainly on the future of the country, now the situation seems to repeat itself in a context with the two political actors in the country in obvious difficulty in reaching an agreement. According to many analysts the direct engagement of Western forces against the Islamic Republic, the Libyan country, would have more drawbacks than advantages: the lure of new fighters ready to compete against Western Caliphate in the file, it would be the greatest danger with the obvious consequence a high price in human lives. To avert this possibility would be preferable to provide help to the Libyan fighters who could commit themselves to liberate their country. Aid should not be, this time only military, but above all politically, to provide the necessary facilities, both materially, that from an educational point of view to the nascent Libyan government. Before this, however, you need a greater diplomatic effort than that produced up to now, which allows the unit of local policies forces in a framework of national union dictated by emergency conditions; all in an absolutely democratic context, which must be protected, then even with the presence on the territory of military personnel to Libya to support the regular forces against any possible attempt to re-emergence of divisive reasons for the unity of the country, conversely a solution feasible is always valid to create separate states on the existing current division: a device that would allow a higher speed, but that would open a whole range of new situations on the issues of alliances and trade and energy agreements.