The issues that stop the truce in Syria and a possible solution

On the eve of the implementation of possible ceasefire in Syria, as expected, the fighting intensified, to enable the various parties to the conflict to have a privileged position when the fighting will be stopped. In this context it should be viewed the Russian initiatives in favor of Assad, against the moderate rebels and Turkish against Kurdish fighters. These elements bring further turmoil in the Syrian war and can constitute the elements that can endanger the future truce. On the issue of the increased Russian engagement is a further American pressure is created on the initiative of President Obama, who urged Putin to end bombing against the Syrian opposition. This request has the dual purpose of allowing the maintenance of the positions on the ground of moderate formations and also to prevent the deployment of ground troops from Saudi Arabia, as threatened by Riyadh. In fact, if this element were to occur, it would give way to a series of consequences that can bring the Cold War, as feared by the Russian Foreign Minister. The position of Saudi Arabia remains strongly opposed to the permanence in power of Assad and now rests, as an alternative, moderate formations, which are a very divided together and that includes both secular formations that moderate Sunni Muslim, the latter preferred for Gulf monarchy. A possible direct involvement of Saudi Arabia, an ally of the US, which might include direct clashes with the Russians, would force the United States to stand physically alongside the Saudis, plunging the international situation in the conflict spilling too dangerous. Another element of disruption on the cease-fire is the attitude of Turkey, which has increased the pressure on the Syrian Kurds, fearing a possible aid to the Kurdish Workers' Party, fought by Turkey as a terrorist organization. What he fears Ankara is the formation of a Kurdish state on its border, and the intention is to weaken the possible armed militias; but to do that signed across the Turkish forces could be largely acting on Syrian soil, so as to cause the Assad official protest to the invasion. This element must be related to the presence, authorized from Damascus, the Russian military personnel and the real possibility of clashes between the two sides, which would follow the facts relating to the encroachment in the airspace of Turkey, by Russian military aircraft and the consequent reduction of one of them by the anti-Ankara. The situation between the two countries is still very tense, even for their respective sides on opposing sides of the Syrian conflict, and a further worsening, even in this case could open strongly contrasting scenarios between Moscow and the Atlantic Alliance, the which Turkey is a member. But Ankara must also take into account its relations with Washington, regarding the Kurdish issue: for the USA the Kurds remain, in the context of the Syrian war against the Islamic State, the most reliable allies and there is no interest, especially from the The Pentagon, for its military weakness. These elements give a deep uncertainty to the already weak truce plan, which has matured into a scenario where, despite the deaths and destruction, the parties' combat capability is far from weakened, as demonstrated by the latest actions of which, unfortunately, once again they caused the highest number of civilian casualties. A proposal that could lead to a quick solution of the Syrian crisis and allow the parties, those who really wish to get involved in the fight against the caliphate, to concentrate to get the only final defeat of the Islamists in the Middle East, concerns a division of the Syrian in three different states, a solution that would allow all stakeholders to reach its objectives. Essentially the side towards the sea would remain under the control of Damascus and would allow the Russians, and also to the Iranians, to maintain their influence on Assad, then there would be a state governed by the opposition, with the support of the moderate Sunnis, to satisfy the ambitions Saudi Arabia and finally a Kurdish state, to compensate for the Kurdish fighters of support given to the Americans. The latter solution, however, is disliked by Turkey that does not want a Kurdish state on its borders, from which it may from turkish attacks against the country. It is necessary to convince Ankara that US diplomacy is committed more than ever, because without the solution of the Kurdish state, throughout the project division of Syria appears unfeasible. In contrast with this solution it will allow for a faster end to hostilities and the consequent immediate creation of humanitarian corridors, essential for the protection of the civilian population.