The new agreement between the US and Russia for a ceasefire in Syria and its implications

Russia and the United States would reach an agreement, this time, perhaps, with greater hopes of being effective, for a ceasefire in Syria since midnight of Saturday, February 27 day. On a practical level Moscow will have to convince the government of Damascus, while Washington's commitment will cover the opposition. Although they seem to overcome the difficulties between the two major foreign actors present on the Syrian scenario, they have established a direct collaboration for the exchange of information necessary to verify the actual availability of the warring parties to accept the suspension of hostilities. The problem is not with the Islamic state or organization Al-Nusra Front, affiliated with Al Qaeda, among other things, in conflict with each other, because it considered, both from Russia, United States, terrorist organizations and therefore outside Syrian civil war, but the Syrian regular forces and the opposition. On their respective positions, there is a mutual distrust, which could be an obstacle on the success of the ceasefire. The Damascus concerns are related, especially, to those opposition forces backed by Saudi Arabia, which has always sought to impose the abandonment of power by Assad as a condition to sit at any table of peace. The offensive revival of the caliphate against regular troops of Assad, who are once again advancing on the ground to groped to remove the links, and then supplies, between Damascus and Aleppo, could represent an opportunity to gain ground at the expense of their own forces Assad and put off, at a later time, the cease-fire. On this opportunity, despite the official governmental alliance anti declarations, which has indicated it can accept in principle the ceasefire, identified as a barrier to stop the weapons, are based doubts of the Assad government; However both Russia that Washington, at this stage seem to agree, to stop the conflict, at least between regular forces and opposition, to encourage the opening of humanitarian corridors and focus on the repression of those forces identified as terrorist. For Obama it is a priority to force the formations of the Islamic state to retreat and the new advanced in Syria arouses much concern, and it is possible that this is one of the reasons of the acceleration towards the ceasefire, which would also aim to involve the Russians, already on the ground with its military aviation and other departments in the fight against the caliphate. It remains a significant doubt on the general plan regarding the stop of arms, consistent attitude that you'll want to keep the Kurds. The relationship between the latter and Assad has been fluctuating, but the latest developments of the Syrian conflict have seen a direct involvement of Turkey, notoriously averse regime in Damascus, with a sort of invasion of the territory of Syria, from which to conduct operations against militias Kurds, however, the US allies. Assad has condemned the use of Syrian soil because contrary to international law, by regular armed forces of another state, and this has only been the last episode of a confrontation between two governments placed on opposing sides for political and religious reasons. It does not seem unlikely that Assad will give up their sovereignty on the Kurdish part of Syria, to create problems in Ankara, however, the possible agreement for the Syrian cease-fire does not seem to be contemplated this part of the territory and even the Kurdish forces, perhaps because, besides fighting against Islamic fundamentalists, they have also begun a military confrontation with Turkey. This element should not be underestimated, however, because it may be a reason that may endanger the implementation of the truce. These developments have caused a cunning political move by Assad, who convened the legislative elections, scheduled for next April 13. This new scenario demonstrates how Assad, which intends to establish itself in the electoral competition, is imperative for a negotiated peace in the country, thanks to the help received from Iran, but especially Russia. Within the agreement between Moscow and Washington this element must have been definitely agreed upon, on the other hand for some time the American administration Assad judged the lesser evil within the Syrian context and this has been judged positively in optics alternative solutions, such as that of dividing Syria in more administrative entities.