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giovedì 11 febbraio 2016

The North Korean threat and China's position

According to information sources of US intelligence on North Korea could obtain quickly plutonium needed to build a bomb. This news, coupled with the many experimental launches of intermediate-range missile carriers increasingly long, it provides an ever greater state of alarm against Pyongyang; Moreover, to make matters worse, it was found that in the North Korean capital was turned on a nuclear reactor functioning precisely plutonium. The whole of these situations helps to increase the fear of the practical capacity of the construction of a plutonium bomb to be placed on a long-range missile, capable of reaching to hit, not only neighboring states to North Korea, but also the the United States itself. If this last possibility is less likely to achieve success, for the presence, in the US, the appropriate defenses to ward off the danger, the Asian countries like South Korea or Japan become targets highly endangered, partly because estimates for the construction weapon plutonium require that the country of North Korea reaches the availability of the necessary equipment to begin the creation of the bomb within a few months, if not, indeed, within a few weeks. It is likely to increase, coming to create a new source of international conflict, including the United States, China and Russia, in a global context already severely tried by the Middle East issue a state of agitation, from the diplomatic point of view. The reasons for this confrontation that promises inevitable, reside in Washington's willingness to create a kind of missile defense system for Japan and South Korea, immediately next to the Chinese border and also relatively not far from those of Russia. Deploy an arsenal that is a reason for altering the military balance in the region, which fuels the conflict with the Russians, but it has an even deeper meaning for the Chinese, who see invaded what they perceive as their own area of ​​regional influence. It must be specified that China has some responsibility North Korean nuclear escalation has not exercised properly its role as the sole interlocutor of Pyongyang, to prevent to have arrived at the present state of play. With the change of power, which led to the power of Kim Jong Un, China has lost influence on the North Korean regime, without being able to recover the lost ground, without, however, operate to pursue whatsoever political changes: the result was to allow Pyongyang increasingly exasperated behavior to submit to blackmail the whole world in order to find the resources to implement the North Korean dictatorship, where the population is facing a serious state of misery and malnutrition. In any case, the regional presence of an uncontrollable nuclear power like North Korea, China poses for the disturbing questions, perhaps even more than for the United States, if Washington can not give up its role as the main ally of Japan and Korea South, Beijing is likely to see an increase in US military presence on the doorstep, a factor that can affect their trade routes and the much sought influence in the region. The perception is that China found itself unprepared for such a serious situation, which constitutes a serious disturbance to its major interests, which are, then, the economic ones. The size of the Chinese country, as an international leading power, still appears incomplete from these elements: Beijing, following the North Korean behavior, is in a difficult situation, which would require a strong diplomatic exercise against Pyongyang, even alongside were not aligned to his conduct, such as the US, in contrast China's action appears to be marked by uncertainty for the ever-present fear of encouraging the union of the two Koreas, which would become an American ally. Chinese perspective, the presence of North Korea is an obstacle to a more invasive presence of the West, but at the same time Beijing undergoes the behavior of Pyongyang, which uses Chinese need this as blackmail. The future scenarios can configure an ever closer alliance between Russia and China against the United States, to preserve the region to excess the West, but if not solve the problem of North Korea, even with a direct intervention on the Pyongyang regime, are likely to become the first victims of the madness of Kim Jong Un.

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