Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 11 febbraio 2016
The North Korean threat and China's position
According to information sources of US intelligence on North Korea could obtain quickly plutonium needed to build a bomb. This
news, coupled with the many experimental launches of intermediate-range
missile carriers increasingly long, it provides an ever greater state
of alarm against Pyongyang; Moreover,
to make matters worse, it was found that in the North Korean capital
was turned on a nuclear reactor functioning precisely plutonium. The
whole of these situations helps to increase the fear of the practical
capacity of the construction of a plutonium bomb to be placed on a
long-range missile, capable of reaching to hit, not only neighboring
states to North Korea, but also the the United States itself. If
this last possibility is less likely to achieve success, for the
presence, in the US, the appropriate defenses to ward off the danger,
the Asian countries like South Korea or Japan become targets highly
endangered, partly because estimates for the construction weapon
plutonium require that the country of North Korea reaches the
availability of the necessary equipment to begin the creation of the
bomb within a few months, if not, indeed, within a few weeks. It
is likely to increase, coming to create a new source of international
conflict, including the United States, China and Russia, in a global
context already severely tried by the Middle East issue a state of
agitation, from the diplomatic point of view. The
reasons for this confrontation that promises inevitable, reside in
Washington's willingness to create a kind of missile defense system for
Japan and South Korea, immediately next to the Chinese border and also
relatively not far from those of Russia. Deploy
an arsenal that is a reason for altering the military balance in the
region, which fuels the conflict with the Russians, but it has an even
deeper meaning for the Chinese, who see invaded what they perceive as
their own area of regional influence. It
must be specified that China has some responsibility North Korean
nuclear escalation has not exercised properly its role as the sole
interlocutor of Pyongyang, to prevent to have arrived at the present
state of play. With
the change of power, which led to the power of Kim Jong Un, China has
lost influence on the North Korean regime, without being able to recover
the lost ground, without, however, operate to pursue whatsoever
political changes: the result was to allow Pyongyang
increasingly exasperated behavior to submit to blackmail the whole
world in order to find the resources to implement the North Korean
dictatorship, where the population is facing a serious state of misery
and malnutrition. In
any case, the regional presence of an uncontrollable nuclear power like
North Korea, China poses for the disturbing questions, perhaps even
more than for the United States, if Washington can not give up its role
as the main ally of Japan and Korea South,
Beijing is likely to see an increase in US military presence on the
doorstep, a factor that can affect their trade routes and the much
sought influence in the region. The
perception is that China found itself unprepared for such a serious
situation, which constitutes a serious disturbance to its major
interests, which are, then, the economic ones. The
size of the Chinese country, as an international leading power, still
appears incomplete from these elements: Beijing, following the North
Korean behavior, is in a difficult situation, which would require a
strong diplomatic exercise against Pyongyang, even alongside were not aligned
to his conduct, such as the US, in contrast China's action appears to
be marked by uncertainty for the ever-present fear of encouraging the
union of the two Koreas, which would become an American ally. Chinese
perspective, the presence of North Korea is an obstacle to a more
invasive presence of the West, but at the same time Beijing undergoes
the behavior of Pyongyang, which uses Chinese need this as blackmail. The
future scenarios can configure an ever closer alliance between Russia
and China against the United States, to preserve the region to excess
the West, but if not solve the problem of North Korea, even with a
direct intervention on the Pyongyang regime, are likely to become the first victims of the madness of Kim Jong Un.
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