Politica Internazionale

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venerdì 11 marzo 2016

The Chinese economy in crisis

China recorded its worst data in economics, twenty-five years and it is evident that the cause of the deterioration in the global economy. The Chinese slowdown is the main accused, above all, to the question of exports, decreased by 25.4% while imports fell by 13.8%. The cause is due to the global weakness in demand, which caused the contraction of exports going to affect the production volumes and orders. This decrease, however, was waiting, as long wave effect of the recession on the essential customer countries of China, the western ones, which affect the budget constraints, causing the collapse of demand. The leaders in Beijing, however, hoped to mitigate this effect by raising domestic demand, an endemic problem of the Chinese economy; However, the structural problems of China's public finances continue to have a negative influence, such as to prevent the rise in domestic demand. China, in fact, would need substantial reforms on labor market plan, which would prevent, however, the results in the short term requested by the Beijing government. Results that do not even come to the considerable indebtedness of Chinese local authorities, those who argue, for example, the costs of infrastructure development. China lives in a financial paradox, where the central state is not in debt, while the authorities are supporting around the peripheral public debt, however, difficult to quantify. But, it is clear, that it is a system that borders cunning in accounting. For China would have to overturn its economy setting, gradually raising the production quota referred to services and decreasing that of pure production, with particular attention to the internal market, for now little used. To do this, however necessary, diminish inequality, this, above all, between cities and rural areas and eliminate the phenomenon of corruption, which distracts a considerable amount of cash which would be engaged in a virtuous way in the reforms. The whole world looks with great attention to what will China do to get on this path, because the Chinese contribution to the world economy has become indispensable from global destinies; It must be specified that the apprehension is remarkable, after the reduction of the growth of China's gross domestic product, increased from two to a percentage figure, reason that has affected the world economy, the current time of growth, which speak of a prediction between 6.5 and 7 percent, could not be confirmed, causing severe negative impacts on the overall demand, which powers the global circuit. The risk that the decrease of the gross domestic product registered in 2015 and quantified in a less than 2.8%, a repeat, or worse, increases, puts China in a dangerous position, first of all for herself, also in relation to the fact , the project on commercial strategy is not yet leaked by the Beijing government. The perception is that the government of China is struggling with enormous problems, perhaps unexpected and far too undervalued, preventing the drafting of appropriate action plans pr face the contraction in demand, even with alternative systems to those far used, essentially based on the containment of labor costs. The big problem is the Chinese have relied in an exaggerated way on this, virtually an alternative strategy added to the absence of a gradual passage to a different kind of economy. The phase of the exploitation of the large availability of labor collides now with the changing internal needs and with the arrival of new players in degrees to provide a more efficient labor cost; these conditions could be fought with the birth of a Chinese industry can be a leader in the commercialization EIn design, ie aspects, which go well beyond the mere use of large quantities of cheap workers, from here to a greater redistribution of wealth , based on the presence of more professionalism, the step would have been shorter and easier, instead a mixture of lack of foresight and inability to change the power structures, despite the media campaigns in progress, have determined the causes of the contraction of the Chinese economy , destined to worsen without proper measures. The rest of the world should think, then, of a reduced size, although always very important, the contribution of the Chinese economy as a world leading and develop alternative strategies.

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