Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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venerdì 11 marzo 2016
The Chinese economy in crisis
China
recorded its worst data in economics, twenty-five years and it is
evident that the cause of the deterioration in the global economy. The
Chinese slowdown is the main accused, above all, to the question of
exports, decreased by 25.4% while imports fell by 13.8%. The
cause is due to the global weakness in demand, which caused the
contraction of exports going to affect the production volumes and
orders. This
decrease, however, was waiting, as long wave effect of the recession on
the essential customer countries of China, the western ones, which
affect the budget constraints, causing the collapse of demand. The
leaders in Beijing, however, hoped to mitigate this effect by raising
domestic demand, an endemic problem of the Chinese economy; However,
the structural problems of China's public finances continue to have a
negative influence, such as to prevent the rise in domestic demand. China,
in fact, would need substantial reforms on labor market plan, which
would prevent, however, the results in the short term requested by the
Beijing government. Results
that do not even come to the considerable indebtedness of Chinese local
authorities, those who argue, for example, the costs of infrastructure
development. China
lives in a financial paradox, where the central state is not in debt,
while the authorities are supporting around the peripheral public debt,
however, difficult to quantify. But, it is clear, that it is a system that borders cunning in accounting. For
China would have to overturn its economy setting, gradually raising the
production quota referred to services and decreasing that of pure
production, with particular attention to the internal market, for now
little used. To
do this, however necessary, diminish inequality, this, above all,
between cities and rural areas and eliminate the phenomenon of
corruption, which distracts a considerable amount of cash which would be
engaged in a virtuous way in the reforms. The
whole world looks with great attention to what will China do to get on
this path, because the Chinese contribution to the world economy has
become indispensable from global destinies; It
must be specified that the apprehension is remarkable, after the
reduction of the growth of China's gross domestic product, increased
from two to a percentage figure, reason that has affected the world
economy, the current time of growth, which speak of a prediction between
6.5 and 7 percent, could not be confirmed, causing severe negative
impacts on the overall demand, which powers the global circuit. The
risk that the decrease of the gross domestic product registered in 2015
and quantified in a less than 2.8%, a repeat, or worse, increases, puts
China in a dangerous position, first of all for herself, also in
relation to the fact , the project on commercial strategy is not yet leaked by the Beijing government. The
perception is that the government of China is struggling with enormous
problems, perhaps unexpected and far too undervalued, preventing the
drafting of appropriate action plans pr face the contraction in demand,
even with alternative systems to those far used, essentially based on the containment of labor costs. The
big problem is the Chinese have relied in an exaggerated way on this,
virtually an alternative strategy added to the absence of a gradual
passage to a different kind of economy. The
phase of the exploitation of the large availability of labor collides
now with the changing internal needs and with the arrival of new players
in degrees to provide a more efficient labor cost; these
conditions could be fought with the birth of a Chinese industry can be a
leader in the commercialization EIn design, ie aspects, which go well
beyond the mere use of large quantities of cheap workers, from here to a
greater redistribution of wealth ,
based on the presence of more professionalism, the step would have been
shorter and easier, instead a mixture of lack of foresight and
inability to change the power structures, despite the media campaigns in
progress, have determined the causes of the contraction of the Chinese
economy , destined to worsen without proper measures. The
rest of the world should think, then, of a reduced size, although
always very important, the contribution of the Chinese economy as a
world leading and develop alternative strategies.
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