Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 21 aprile 2016
Always difficult relations between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia
The climate of the Cold War continues to be present in the relations between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia. The
two sides came together at the insistence of the Germans, for whom the
situation of uncertainty implies particularly important geopolitical and
economic consequences, but despite the wishes of Berlin to bring back
reports in a more relaxed atmosphere, the distance between the two parts continues to be enormous. Neither
progress on the Syrian situation, although not sufficient to solve the
Middle East crisis, have changed the mutual distrust that continue to
exist for the problems that concern the territories bordering with
Russia. The
Ukrainian question is always central, but it is the reason for even
deeper frictions, concerning, on the side of Moscow, what is perceived
as an invasion of their living space, and from Brussels, the crucial
point is the lack of respect international law by Russia. For
the Kremlin, the Atlantic Alliance is having a political and military
expansionism, which aims to isolate Russia, compressing the geopolitical
potential and the international role it should itself entitled. Precisely
in this perspective must be framed in the initiatives that Putin has
made internationally to emphasize the importance of Moscow and which
should be read as a completion of what began with the annexation of the
Crimea and the crisis fueled in the eastern territories of Ukraine . On
the other hand, the exclusive point of view of international law, which
should be the basis for regulating relations between states, Moscow's
attitude has been to produce an infraction after the other international
standards, circumvented, often , by methods anything but orthodox, like the one to use its own soldiers without official insignia. Following
this reasoning the Western resentment can only agree: the aggressive
stance of Moscow is a secure destabilizing factor of international
balance and convictions, with the ensuing economic sanctions on Russia
are largely justified. What
appears to be insufficient, however, it is a lack of political
bargaining with Moscow, unable to report on the level of a more intense
dialogue, able to open a new phase in relations between the two sides,
who knows how to bring greater relief. Moscow,
in this scenario, has adopted a double tactic: that of stiffness on the
European side and that of leadership in the Middle East; in
the latter case the intention is to present a more efficient image than
the American one, too 'wait, to gain international acceptance and even
within the Western bloc, where the enterprises of the Russian forces,
and the attitude of Putin, met the success of the agriculture policies within the opposition forces. Moscow
has taken a leadership role against Islamic terrorism, which allowed
him to gain considerable sympathy, liable to convey a more lenient
judgments for their behavior in Ukraine and in Crimea. Consequently, the West's bargaining power seems reduced, although not enough to fall back from their positions. However
this state of things remains potentially very dangerous, especially for
the constant lack of privileged communication channels, able to avert
hazardous incidents. This
aspect should be carefully evaluated, especially because the custom to
intrude in foreign airspace by Russian military aircraft remains a
constant, but also the recent case of the American destroyer sighted
near Kaliningrad, gives rise to concern. In
this regard it relates to the need, felt by both parties, to create
communications channels more intense, especially for military ISSUES,
where you put the current parts in mutual way of exercises and movements
in sensitive territories. The
only point on which there have been convergences is the Atlantic
Alliance renewed commitment to Afghanistan, a region that has always
worried about Russia, for Islamic extremist influences, which can
produce in the Caucasus.
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