The new unknowns of the US presidential campaign

While the American election campaign enters the phase that will lead to the nomination, you have to record two facts that have subverted the forecasts of when it started: the first, and is the most striking, is the victory virtually certain, as a Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who outsider has achieved victory, against all candidates and the party itself. The second element is the effort with which Hillary Clinton, favored date, is reaching the Democratic nomination. These are two complementary aspects to each other, which are distinguishing the American political scene, performing a structural change in the confrontation between the two historical parties of the country, which until a short time before, were not far apart from each other. Currently, on the contrary, the differences increase exponentially due to the radicalization of the positions, which occur to a greater social distance classes in the country, which is addressed in a manner substantially opposite. It must be recalled that the Clinton struggling to establish itself, for success, for nothing provided in these terms, his opponent in the Democratic field, Bernie Sanders. The Sanders political program, which collects much support among young people and the working class, is based precisely on the reduction of income differences, to overcome with redistributive policies, aversion to finance the increase of the welfare state and a vision, who wants to facilitate a direction generally more progressive in the country. Trump is enjoying similar success, especially in middle America facing the same issues from a different perspective, which focuses on reducing taxes and invasiveness of the state, so as not to affect the properties, even small and small privileges acquired . The Working Class backing Trump has similar problems of what supports Sanders, just opt ​​for different solutions. If the parties remain the same, it understands how the political distance is increased, so as to favor the extreme wings of the camps, which involves a new aspect to the USA. Moreover Trump is the natural evolution of the phenomenon called "Tea Party", which has subverted from within, the Republican party politics. Although it is significant that the leaders of Republicans, including two former Presidents Bush, does not recognize Trump as a representative candidate, the American tycoon has built a solid base of support, against which the party leaders can not anymore. There is a possibility that Trump will become president of the United States? According to the latest polls this outcome is all too remote, although to happen certain conditions are necessary, which at the moment seem difficult to be realized. Meanwhile, Trump has to convince the Republicans who are opposed not to vote for Clinton, it will be the opposing candidate, or at least not to go to the polls. This is not easy, the wife of Bill, to moderate voters of the Republicans, is a candidate who best meets these characteristics in which voters will recognize and, plus, it is the lesser evil than Trump. Of course if the opponent was Sanders, these conditions would lack, however, the Clinton, in case of victory, will have to earn the votes of supporters of his opponent, which can be achieved but not granted, without turning the election program in a more favorable way to the needs of those who support Sanders. The change of the respective attitudes of the two American parties is therefore the signal that even in the US policy has changed under the influence of growing populism, with a worrying advance of the Right, which is likely to affect all the world's balance , reflecting on all international issues in which the US is involved and which are the most important on the planet. Clinton appears the only candidate who can keep close the distance between Democrats and Republicans, as it once was; this may be his strong point to reach the presidency of the country, despite the increased polarization, it is reasonable to believe that the majority of Americans will be avoided Trump as president, however, to maintain this position of advantage the Democratic candidate will have to make a show of skill and diplomacy and try not to exaggerate too much the advantage of one over the other, a continuous exercise of political balancing act as a key tactic for victory. This fact also reveals another aspect far from negligible: if at first the Republican Party seemed the most divided, and still is for the profound differences of opinion between the base and the summit, the democratic appeared not to suffer from this drawback. In this final moment, however, the Democratic Party is the one that is less compact than the Republican and this element could have a decisive weight in the final verdict on who will be the next president of the United States.