Assad to victory in the Syrian conflict

The most natural development for the Syrian conflict appears that will see the assertion of Assad and then her stay in power. The natural allies of the Syrian dictator: Russia, Iran he Lebanese Hezbollah, adding, though implicitly also the Member States, which have now identified Assad as the lesser evil compared to the Islamic state, whose defeat remains l ' main objective of Washington. So while the regular army in Iraq, supported by the Shi'ite and Kurdish fighters on the ground, and backed by the US Air sky, you start recovery of lost territory, the White House is developing a joint action with Russia to eliminate even the Islamic fundamentalists by the Syrian country. It is clear that those who will benefit from this development will mainly Assad, who will bring back under its sovereignty zones falls under the domain of religious extremism, which, in addition to the caliphate, also includes other groups, such as Al Nusra Front, closely linked to Al Qaeda and the Army of Islam and other groups, which initially enjoyed the support of their US. The US goal is to get a partnership with Moscow in order to synchronize the actions. This should be the decisive attack to free the country from Syrian Islamist rebels, to the detriment of the Gulf countries and Turkey, who had supported them, with the clear intention to extend their influence over the Syrian town; but it will not go well: Assad is intended to maintain power, even if American participation to military intervention will force a peace deal which could see the current occupant of the highest office in Damascus properly make some concessions towards democracy to population. The permanence of Assad, however, seems to be the most pleasing solution to Israel, which, albeit in the context of a formal enmity with the Syrian regime had informal relations of non-aggression, which can allow control of its northern border. But not only will the regime in Damascus to emerge victorious from the war, the Kurds, who have contributed substantially to the containment and the defeat of the caliphate in Syria, where they have gained significant portions of land must also be considered, those already inhabited by the same Kurds before the conflict. Thanks to this direct engagement, which will not be recognized, the Kurds could come and enjoy greater autonomy, as happens in Iraq, or aspire to build a sovereign national entity. This development worries Turkey, which fears a union with the Kurds on their territory. This part of the definition of the end of the conflict appears as one of the most difficult to solve, especially in the political and diplomatic arena, but without a definitive solution could turn into further conflict. Everything will depend on the attitude of the US and Russia, and by the same Assad, who might sell parts of Syria in an official manner right at the Kurds, in retaliation against Ankara for the support provided to the Islamic state. It seems clear that Turkey fears this possibility and has changed its diplomatic attitude with several nations with which it had entered into conflict. In fact, were re-established, even oper economic reasons, relations with Russia deteriorated after felling by Ankara of a Moscow military plane, then they are Reconnect relations with Israel and with Egypt, actions that have allowed the Erdogan regime out of isolation in which he was placed because of its policy that tried to be expansionary. Including to the caliphate's attitude it has already changed for some time due to US pressure, a factor that has, however, contributed to become the turkish country a target of the Islamic State attacks. The region, and prepares new structure, even if the times will not be short to end the conflict and to normalize the situation and, at that point, it will be interesting to see, what will be the actual location of Assad on the international stage, that is, if you will still room for maneuver or autonomy and whether it will be hostage to other countries, such as the Russians.