Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 26 luglio 2016
The interest of Russia in US elections
The
issue of e-mail of the leadership of the Democratic Party, which
favored Hillary Clinton to the conquest of nominations for the
presidential, to the detriment of Bernie Sanders, assumes a significance
that goes beyond the debate within the American political formation and
the same US domestic politics, to take an international importance. According
to some sources, in fact, it would be Russian hackers to retrieve the
mail, affect the final result in favor of Trump. The
discovery of the mails showed the division of the democratic party and
the same Sanders appeals to his supporters to express their vote in
favor of Clinton were greeted with whistles of disapproval. Surveys
exist that it very likely that a substantial number of Sanders
supporters prefer the election of Trump to that of Clinton, highlighting
the fact as the Trump and Sanders voters are closer than you think, and
still far from their the lines of their party leaders. Disagreements
in the Democratic House have not escaped to Russia, that its objectives
are more interested, though, in a sense, paradoxically, that the final
election result is in favor of Trump. The
intentions of the Republican candidate, in fact, appear to be more
functional to the international interests of Moscow, that in case of the
Clinton election, would see a continuation of Obama's policy, based on
the central role of the Atlantic Alliance. Watching
Trump, essentially more centered on the economy and thus on saving
those who believe the billionaire investments for the exclusive benefit
of foreign countries, foresees a substantial US commitment resizing in
the Atlantic Alliance. Trump
has expressly stated that in the event of a Russian attack on the
Baltic countries, the US could not intervene, because these nations are
rich enough to defend themselves. On
other occasions the Republican candidate has reproached to other
members of the Atlantic Alliance not to engage adequately in the
activity of the organization, both from an economic point of view, and
military. These
findings are not new, Obama himself has repeatedly stressed the thing,
never, however, threaten a US disengagement, partly because the
geopolitical objectives of the Atlantic Alliance coincide precisely with
the foreign policy objectives of Washington. On
the other hand the power of the president of the United States of
America does not allow him to disregard international treaties, however,
it is clear that a hostile attitude to a military activity which still
requires substantial funding, and that requires a considerable
diplomatic effort, can becomes slower, decisive to stop an apparatus which needs more and more often of fast decisions. This
scenario certainly would benefit the Kremlin, which could carry out his
plan to extend its influence on the countries belonging to the Soviet
previously without an effective contrast. But
we must say that such a development would contradict one of the points
of the program, albeit not too clear, Trump, trying to pry the American
patriotism and the revival of the US as a world power, whose role has
been downgraded from ' Obama administration. Certainly
for a rival country, how can it be Russia, the United States would be
weakened by a Trump presidency, inexperienced international issues, with
respect to the possibility that Hillary Clinton veneer on the highest
US office, data on his experience as Secretary of State. The
disengagement line with US allies by Trump, does not concern only the
European countries and the Atlantic Alliance, but also nations far
considered of primary importance to the United States, like Japan. Despite
the centrality of the Asian seas in US policy, especially in view to
containing China, the billionaire candidate urged Tokyo to acquire the
atomic bomb to defend itself from North Korea and China itself, so going
to encourage nuclear proliferation. It
is understandable that try to promote Trump, to the detriment of
Clinton, both for Russia as a strategic factor in the evolution of its
international policy to have as a counterpart a person like Trump would
encourage Putin, much more experienced politician, in the project to
give back to Russia the global superpower dimensions, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union and not yet recaptured because of the contrast of the USA.
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