The international repercussions of the situation in Turkey

The doubts and anomalies on the attempted coup was turkish they continue to increment and indicate the possibility of an action designed desk to allow Erdogan to cancel opponents present in the state machinery. Indeed, the ways of carrying out the coup have raised more than a doubt on the real organizational abilities of those who led the and the blacklisting ready constitute an additional factor of suspicion. Of course the conspiracy theory is always the most difficult to prove, but it is clear that the attempt of the coup, was being carried out in too amateurish to have even the slightest success rate. If it is clear that many people may not have given to interpret a role of appearance and victims testify to the violence of the fighting, the perception is that an attempt to remove the power to Erdogan, there was, but it was not too shared and it seemed almost expected, if not encouraged, then defeat him better. If you think who benefits this situation, one can not but admit that the only one to gain advantages is its president turkish. Meanwhile, his level of popularity in a country where information is almost completely standardized, it is in large growth in the population and this approval will only be used to carry out his project to transform the way in a presidential government system of the country. Then there is the question of opponents, including the armed forces was one of the major groups, if not the major, averse to Erdogan, which do not share the religious setting of the state, in this supported by wide circles of the judiciary: no is no coincidence that these two parts of the state are the most affected by the purges of Ankara. The speed with which the arrests highlights the fact that the lists of those who do not share Erdogan's line were ready for some time, so have not been necessary investigations to get to the ones that are presented as traitors to the country have been made. This whole scenario favors Erdogan internally, where you create the final terms to a greater concentration of power in his hands, an objective that the turkish president pursues long. The most important problems for the international scenario, are those that involve the acceleration towards more and more power to Erdogan, as regards relations with other states, with the European Union, the Atlantic Alliance and to the evolution that is taking the Middle East scenario. Turkey Erdogan has from the beginning held an ambiguous attitude towards the Islamic state, alongside Saudi Arabia in an implicit support of the caliphate: the current tide of the war see the Islamists go to the loss of sovereignty of the territory they had conquered and for joint action by Russia and the United States, both for ground battles waged by the Iraqi army, the Kurds and the Shiites, for both the disappearance of the support of Ankara forced by Washington to take a different attitude on problem of the caliphate. However, these developments are favoring Assad, whose fall was the goal that justified the support of the Islamic state and, at the same time, the rise of the consideration of the Kurds, whose intent is to collect US support for the constitution of their sovereign state, for their participation in the conflict on the ground, avoiding the use of American troops in the war zones. These factors added together mean Erdogan's defeat of all its goals in international politics and the decision would make it unusable to the United States, the Turkish base from where they rode the air raids against the caliphate is quite eloquent; to this must be added the reaction against late pronouncement of condemnation of the coup by Obama and the charge of protecting the American homeland dissident turkish blamed by Erdogan of masterminding the coup. We are so in front of the lowest point in relations between Ankara and Washington, where even the membership of Turkey to the Atlantic Alliance can be doubted. Aside from all the considerations on the strategic and political presence of Ankara in the biggest Western military structure, also in the unique position of the Islamic state, the problem for the White House, is whether it is still convenient to have among its allies a country He governed by an untrustworthy character like Erdogan. If this scenario is quite clear, it is less the rapprochement towards Putin. Russia, it should be remembered, has as its primary objective in the Middle East to keep Assad in power, the exact opposite of that of Erdogan, but to the president turkish is even more priority to avoid the creation of a Kurdish state, a requirement that does not fall among those of the Kremlin where you can find points of contact. For Putin the chance to create a rift in the Atlantic Alliance, is too great a chance to let it escape, why deprive the Alliance of the garrison on the Black Sea could give substantial benefits even in the performance of the Ukrainian conflict. As you see both Erdogan, Putin have substantial reasons to find points of contact, convenient to both. It remains for the President turkish the problem of relations with the European Union if Ankara still has the weapon of blackmail of Syrian refugees, for which he received six billion, or otherwise, in general, to stop human trafficking towards' Europe with the blockade of the Balkan route, the attitude taken by Erdogan to the coup leaders, which shows a total disregard for human rights, it blocks virtually all possibility of negotiations with Brussels. There is a fundamental error of Europe, which has never been entirely clear in opposing a refusal to Turkey for the failure to adhere to the standards required in the field of civil liberties and rights, and this is due to the attitude German too busy to consider only the economic benefits of a supranational European organization Ankara entrance. This can be an opportunity to establish clear limits to have relations with Brussels and at the same time, to review, the agreements made with what is in fact a regime from which we should stay as far away as possible. But Erdogan once again shows to go ahead with political hazards, result of the capitalization of a divided union and unable to express to know a single line of conduct and, at this time, also weakened from the UK. President turkish has not abandoned the idea of ​​an entrance, albeit gradually in Europe, but he wants to accomplish by winning the domestic front rid of all opposition and capable of even more so exercise his power to blackmail. For the European Union it is time to alone handle the immigration emergency, no awkward allies that inevitably will present the bill; this must also be done by forcing recalcitrant members to take charge of the problem, otherwise drastic cuts in funding and even expulsion. This way you will be able to break off relations with Erdogan and regain his consistency.